RE:RE:RE:RE:Dean and Sarge nailed itHey SARGE__Some Analysts REMAIN a LOT MORE ForeGiving that YOU and DEAN EDMONTON__
Such differences of OPINION is What MAKES the MARKETS eh !!!! National Bank Says Parkland's 2023 Guidance Exceeds Forecasts; Lifts Target Price
12/09/2022 (MT Newswires) -- National Bank of Canada noted overnight Thursday Parkland Corp.'s (TSX: PKI) adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2023 and 2025 exceeded its forecasts, as it lifted its target price for the international fuel distributor and retailer.
The bank said in a note Parkland expects adjusted EBITDA of $1,700-$1,800 million in 2023. This includes a $100 million impact related to the planned refinery turnaround in Q1 2023. It noted the company's capex of $500-$550 million, consisting of maintenance capex of $300-$325 million and growth capex of $200-$225 million, and leverage of about 3.0x by the end of 2023 from 3.5x at the end of Q3 2022.
The bank also noted that the company reiterated confidence in meeting its 2025 ambitions, including $2.0 billion of adjusted EBITDA without further acquisitions and leverage of 2.0x-3.0x by the end of 2025.
The bank said it has updated its estimates to reflect management's guidance. It increased its 2023 EBITDA forecast to $1,701 million from $1,644 million and 2025 EBITDA estimate to $1,874 million from $1,813 million.
The bank noted that Parkland recently indicated it would pause on M&A, pivoting towards integrating its acquired businesses, and said it is the right strategy for the company at this juncture following a period of heightened acquisition activity.
National Bank retained its Outperform rating on Parkland and increased its price target to $36.00 from $34.00, reflecting higher EBITDA estimates.
SargeX wrote: I totally agree with Dean and would add that I think management is all over the place in what they have taken-over rather than being focused on their core business.
My wife & I held PKI from Nov/2013 to Sept/2020 and did really well with it. I can guarantee we will never buy it again. There's just too many other great companies starting with the mid-streamers especially PPL.
Ciao
Sarge
DeanEdmonton wrote: DavidEEE - There is no penalty to management if they miss guidance in 2023. They have missed it in 2022 and 2021. I believe RESULTS, not their optimistic guesses. They ptrovided "Guidance" last quarter that they will hit between 1.6 and 1.7 billion for this year. They need to do over 600 million this quarter to hit that. I will believe it when I see it, and I have zero faith it will be there. What we will see is a litany of excuses from Covid, to supply chain, to staffing and pipeline issues to explain the miss, AGAIN. Both Sarge and I have said, neither of us would buy this stock at any price due to the massive debt and lousy leadership. It also doesn't fit in our portfolios. Others may see it different, but at this stage you would be betting on the pronouciations of a leadership team that has been consistently wrong. Given the pop in the stock, I guess there are still a core of true beievers. Everyone has to decide for themselves, I can only provide my perspective.
DavidEEE wrote: Larrymartin77 wrote:
Have to admit Dean and Sarge were bang on with their analysis on this stock. Warning people since the stock price was at $45 about the balance sheet and the multiple acquisitions and management decisions etc. Always enjoyed your insightful posts, keep up the good work ....
Was thinking about starting a postion around this price but would
appreciate Sarge and Deans analisis considering the updated guidance, Thanks in advance