RE:My prediction
CandyC wrote: I expect the Fed will pause soon. Sangoma will hit $10 sometime in the first half and will finish the year below $9. Oil will also hit $120 again and average over $90 for the year
let's here everyone's prediction
I'm going to use history as my guide as to what I think is going to happen.
I think the market goes lower in 2023 and I compare the current environment to the dotcom bubble circa late 2000 /early 2021 but with stubbornly high inflation.
The start of the recession occurs about 10 months after the 10 year minus three month treasury yield inverts. This is just an average and it doesn't have to always occur this way. If one uses the unemployment rate indicator, then the recession will start roughly 9 months from trough unemployment levels. In the US, unemployment has troughed in the month of September at 3.5%. It is also interesting to note that the unemployment rate indicator has a shorter recession lead time than the inversion prediction. The former indicates a recession to occur 9 months after trough unemployment and the latter indicates a recession to occur 10 months after inversion. This gives me an approximate timeline of June 2023 - August 2023 as the start of this recession.
What to lookout for?
The National Bureau of Economic Research always announces a recession when the recession is already over. I would not wait for this announcement as confirmation. Here's what to lookout for. When unemployment in the US reaches above 4% from the current 3.7% rate then it's fair to say the recession has probably started. History tells us that a recession begins when unemployment rises about 50 basis points from trough levels. 4% is the magic number for me.
The consumer conference leading economic indicators suggests a recession is currently underway. However, unless I see unemployment reach 4%, I don't think it has started just yet. It probably occurs somewhere between Q1 and Q3 of next year.
The market bottoms when the following conditions hold:
1) unemployment increases about 1.5% points from trough levels
2) 5-6 months after the recession has started and usually this comes before real gdp bottoms. The market is forward looking so it anticipations real economic growth troughs about 1 or 2 quarters ahead. The market bottoms about halfway through a recession which typically lasts 10-12 months.
3) The market bottoms after the Fed Funds rate has peaked. This one is important and often overlooked.
If we enter a recession next year then I think the market bottoms in late second half of next year but again it's going to depend on the timing of when it begins.
One must keep in mind that peak to trough bear markets measured in days was 930 during the dotcom era and 512 during the GFC. We are about 1 year into this bear market. This gives me reason, as other indicators that I've outlined, that the market bottoms sometime next year.
Sangoma will be a long term winner! Just need a little patience.