RE:Brilliant economy lessonWell Obscure1, with all due respect, I can say I'm not a fan.
With all that doom and gloom she speaks of, it makes me wonder why she went long, and missed one of the best short trades of the year as TSLA and other EVs drop to more realistic valuations. I regret holding only a small short in TSLA, and I covered in the final days of Dec. Like the sky high marijuana stocks, once the hype and promise faded, prices move down to reflect the real value as a going concern today.
She has it totally wrong on energy, thinking what happens in a small part of the US, or what she sees at a conference or through the window of her Uber while on some foreign trip is what is going on in the rest of the world.
Energy companies earnings continue to be fantastic, even at $70 WTI, which is why their shares have not fallen with oil prices. They are not increasing supply, in fact capital investment is lower than what is required to stay at the same level. She ignores the effect to reduce oil prices made by the 200mm bbl SPR injection into the commercial markets, the Russian crude that never made it off the market, and the low demand by the China lockdown. With OPEC only under a 1m bpd real cut, inventories continue to drop now even with all these short term hits to price and demand, which are all about to reverse.
Her forecast of 70mm bpd global consumption by 2030 is insane, a 30% drop in 7 years? Come on... Global consumption is increasing, not decreasing, while supply is constrained and approaching its limits.
Still I think we will see flat prices for a while in Q1, but fasten your seatbelts after that going into the spring.
I have been expecting general market carnage, but other than the collapse in EVs and tech, it seems the market is ignoring it, and still won't drop. Continued employment increases have proven to be strong and resilient in the real labour markets, the jobs that you hear "Would you like fries with that?"
Market is stuck in a sideways range now, SP500 floor at 3800 then up to 4100. I'm trading long and short on the edges of this channel.
Fortunately, my life experiences of being exposed to many things and bizzare people including some of my family, has given me the ability to spot and steer clear of those preaching fanatacism in religeous, political, and now recently investment beliefs.
Her focus on including all kinds of potentially disruptive investments into the ARKK fund without regard for profitability and sometimes reality, remind me of the same unwaivering blind faith of a Q conspiracy dude at a MAGA Trump rally, or those being posessed attending a country Baptist church service in Texas. The theme is unique enough that It will convert a few into believers, but until it hits them in the pocketbook, it is hard to for them to break free of the cult.
For me, I'm not drinking the ARKK Kool Aid. I believe in oil. It is the compact easy to transport concentrated energy density fuel we humans will be needing for decades to come in ever increasing amounts in addition to other sources of energy as well.
Obscure1 wrote: Cathie Wood has her fans and detractors, but there is no denying her skills in economic analysis
There are some important messages in her latest recap of the economy such as the money supply is now negative for the first time in her 45 year career. In addition, "orders" were down 10% which is a steeper drop than when covid hit....yikes! Cathie also talks about how earnings are now falling at 2.5% to 3.0% (due in part to shorter work weeks). Cathie also talks about how she believes how the economy has been in a recession since Q1. There is just too much info for me to keep writing.
The following video is 53 minutes long which is a grunt for me. However, by the 18 minute mark (which is where I'm at now as I'm taking a break), the amount of gold is well worth the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOl3U5h_78Q
Be prepared for a dose of "I told you so" from Experienced after he has worked his way through the video.
My take on the content of the video is that a recovery is probably coming sooner than later once we take a little trip off a cliff first.