SPCEO1 wrote: It looks like you got caught by that autocorrect thing that gets us all eventually! If only there was a Simone around that we could play for this mess. When things like this happen, there usually is "someone" (what Sabbocat was trying to say before the autocorrect gremlins messed it up) who pays the pricebut that is usually ugly and I am not certain it is required. Management has succeeeded in getting the legacy drug sales headed in the right direction. There efforts to make what they had in NASH relevant were heroic and may yet payoff in some way. On cancer, they obtained an asset with promise on the cheap and built it up to a place where the FDA thought it was impressive enough to grant it Fast Track status and a knowlegeable investor like Soleus jumped in with both feet. That it crashed into a seemingly very high hurdle recently takes nothing away from how they worked very hard to make it into something potentially great. And, while TH-1902 is wounded for sure - it is not clear yet the wound is a mortal one. TH-1902 might have been just a case of covid away from being able to declare proof of concept in the phase 1 trial (the patient with the 50%+ tumor reduction had to withdraw after three treatments due to covid).
Sometimes things just don't work out despite an impressive effort being made by those in charge.
On your list of possible good things that might happen (and THTX is overdue to be blessed by something good happening!), I would put the NASH partnership at the top of the list. I am guessing the F-8 approval is pretty much a lock, so I don't think that would limit a partnership deal. Maybe the pen injector is a bigger hurdle but that too seems solvable and the partnership could be contingent on those things happening before big money changes hands. There is a very good chance Egrifta would be helpful in NASH based on what studies have been done so far so it should attract some interest if the NASH market is heating up again post MDGL's great results. It is still hard for me to believe they would get great terms on any NASH partnership, however, unless companies start competing over access to Egrifta in NASH. That seems unlikely to me but hopefully MDGL's results has really changed things. I suspect big pharma tries to acquire the bigger names (MDGL and AKRO) and THTX is left to do a deal with a lesser but cash rich pharma company seeking an entrance to the big leagues through NASH. It is also possible there could be a company that would just acquire THTX for its NASH asset and its tax losses. That might make sense for a mid-sized pharma company with profits to shield - they could get a flyer on NASH and cancer at a reasonable, after tax cost in a stock acquisition for THTX.
Next I would think a THTX acquisition of a new product would be the best bet although that has proven hard to do over many years. They need to find another Taimed where THTX's sales force is valuable enough to share sales with on some new product - there are not many (any?) of those around but a deal like this means the cash required up front from THTX is minimal, which is what they need right now.
A cancer partnership would be third on my list but we really need to hear more about the phase 1a and 1b trial results to know how legitimate that might be. As QWERTY has suggested, the therapeutic window may be too narrow or even non-existent which would cancel any interest in a partnership.
A buyout of THTX by a financial buyer looking to turn a relatively quick financial profit also makes sense at these low price levels. It may be too small anopportunity for those who specialize in such things, however.
SABBOBCAT wrote: The next 5 months will be interesting as I am sure the C-suite and the Board both realize Simone will need to be held to account for the current SP. my thought is if we are under $3 in May, some sort of shake up will happen. To get there I see 4 options starting with the most likely:
- Partner in oncology: on the heels of a revised nod from the FDA th could partner to find the program and seek external validation of the program. However it would need to be with a credible global player to have any material impact on the SP
- Commercial distribution rights: it would be great to leverage the distribution platform, however any proven drug could be expensive. On the other hand a new niche drug could be a cost effective way to partner, but the market would likely heavily discount any future potential due to the trogarzo flop.
- Partner in NASH: realistically if this is going to happen it won't be until the F8 is approved, but there is always the chance it goes ahead with less favourable terms to compensate the partner for the added risk
- Buyout: Stronger hands see the potential of the programs and can realize synergies. This combined with the tax losses is always a possibility
With the JPM HC conference running next week, i hope Paul and team show up with bells on ready to put on a show.