RE:honest peoplI haven't owned it as long as others here to see all those ups and downs -I did see the Trogarzo up and down though. Obviously I thought there would be a way forward with both pipeline assets at some point. I always thought NASH would have to be funded by the company, at least a 2b "proof". And the way forward was their hopes to see the share rise so they could sell the idea to institutional investors. That never happened but they gave it a very good shot. As for oncology, the pre-clinical lead to all sorts of "hope" but hasn't been realized. The old 5% probability rule I guess. We'll see how that science ends up, but maybe it's that Sort1 is valid as a target, but you need better drugs -like JFMs been saying. So I felt the risk/reward was ok. I was wrong on that score.
As for now, someones buying and someones selling so there's transactions. Who it is I don't know. The issue with the company is that they do have an underlying commercial business that they are determined to make money on now that the pipeline RD spend is falling off. They have some room in RD to complete what they need to and maybe do a small enrollment for oncology. It won't break the bank. But making sure sales hit targets and keep growing is paramount. That will give them many options so I think you are extremely off-base, for the time being, to suggest "huge debt" and no near term value. They can deal with the loan a number of ways and one has to understand that large institutional shareholders will not just sit by and watch a company go under if they can help it or prevent it. Will it cost a lot --perhaps, they can drive pretty steep values for themselves. But it would not be odd for the company at some point when they think the share reflects the commercial business, to sell equity to pay off the debt. As long as a company is trading at close to "fair value", or in that zone, you aren't diluting anyone by doing that. We always pointed out the ONO (which ended up not being one given where we are now), only because we thought moving the pipeline faster would show much higher equity values. It didn't. Now, the fair value is the commercial assets until anything else develops. Those are a roughly $90-100mil and growing business that will breakeven this year and show profits of $10-20mil next year. But a 3x revenue or a 17.5x EBITDA and that's roughly HIGH value. So if they can sell equity at $2-$3, they may and none of us would think that's dilutive. So it's not very helpful nor correct to throw out worry around high debt or bankruptcy. They'll just raise capital and closer to an easier fair value. No ones diluted, unless of course they end up pulling through one of those pipeline assets.
As for why they aren't buying, I can't answer but would say the option grants have aligned their rewards with ours and I would guess the Board will do more of that to save on costs and make those in the company that want to stay through this tough period rewarded if it goes right. We don't see it, but it wouldn't surprise me that some middle level people have moved on to greener pastures as the cost containment and lack of success on the pipeline has dented the employment trajectory for some there.