RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Risky disappeared after being so wrongYes, thank you, I wasn't intending to mislead. I was discussing generally about how much cash flow is generated to emphasize the largesse, but ignoring the plan to aggressively reach a debt target and buy back shares.
You are absolutely right, they will not be paying a dividend of $1 a share in 2024 because the plan is to use FCF to attack the debt and share load - which are shareholder returns just the same and definitely the right order to do things.
What I meant to say is paying $1 a share in 2024 is well within their means and they would still have money to pay down debt and buyback shares, albeit at a slower pace than they actually plan to.
Bottom line: There is lots of cash flow here at this share price - the best value metrics in the industry currently.
JohnnyDoe wrote: Riski, I agree that it's an incredible opportunity that eventually cannot be ignored.
But I think you're a bit ahead of yourself on 2024. They probably can pay a buck a share divvy on 70+ wti, but not until they hit the debt target of 1.5 B.
My understanding is that at 75 wti they'll hit that debt target in mid 2025. Looking at the various slide shows I've seen, I think there is 98 fcf for each 5 dollar wti increment. That's a number I calculated based on the fcf/adjusted cash flow ratio.
A nice run above 75 will get us to the debt target quickly. I expect considerable buybacks to begin upon closing which will support share price. Shares out should be under 800 by the time we hit the debt target and jump to 75% returns. At that point, significant dividends are coming