2023 Liquids Growth
AAV has drilled 9 liquids rich wells already in 2023, so I expect a big bump in AAV liquids production in Q2, and higher Liquids production numbers for Q3.
AAV has front loaded some capex in terms of the yearly budget to drill all 9 liquids wells in the first half of 2023. but my guess is that they will increase the budget based on the results of this liquids rich drilling, and a new midterm projection for revenue + production for 2023.
AAV is now drilling liquids rich, and depending on their success the stock could get some legs.
From an evaluation perspective, 58,414 boe/day with roughly 10% liquids. Q3
AAV has a market cap of 1.27 Billion, and less than 200 million in debt. That about 25 million per 1000 flowing boe plus they own a gas plant, other facilities and a lot of land.
Pretty reasonable price, and i can see a takeout here, or the possibly one.
I expect a budget increase and more liquids rich wells being drilling in second half of 2023.
IMHO