Trisura Group Ltd.
(TSU-T) C$29.58
TSU Releases Preliminary Results and Update on Run-Off Program
Event
Yesterday after market, Trisura released preliminary operating EPS results and provided an update on the run-off program in the U.S. that was written down last quarter. Additionally, the earnings release and conference call has been scheduled for May 11 and May 12 (9:00am; webcast), respectively.
Impact: MIXED
Management estimated a one-time negative hit in Q1/23 of $11mm-$13mm after- tax related to the U.S. run-off program, reflecting protection and other run-off costs, partially offset by earned premium. In Q2/23, this is expected to partially reverse with a positive $4mm-$6mm after-tax benefit, driven by earned premium outweighing protection and run-off costs. This results in a cumulative negative net income impact of $5mm-$9mm in H1/23. While the Q1/23 impact is somewhat higher than we expected, we do not believe it is sufficiently high to cause capital concerns for the company, and the net impact in H1/23 is roughly consistent with expectations. Trisura intends to provide an update of H2/23 impacts prior to Q3/23 reporting.
On the earnings front, operating EPS is expected to be in the $0.57-$0.62 range, higher than our estimate and consensus of $0.49. This points to another strong quarter from an underlying business perspective. Additionally, the transition to IFRS 17 is expected to increase BVPS ~2% (consistent with previous guidance of 1%-5%)