RE:RE:RE:The long and variable lagThere is another aspect to the problems facing the US Fed and also has implications for investing.
Back in the day when I was a student and in the early days of my investment life, international trade accounted for abut 10% of the US GDP. In this envirnoment, US policy makers including the Fed didn't really have to worry much about the what was going on in the rest of the world since trade was such a small part of the economy.
Fast forward to today (keep your finger on the button for a while...lol) and you will find that trade represents over 25% of the US economy and so what happens in the rest of the world can have a big effect on what happens to the US ecomony. This presents an additional challenge for the Fed to get it right in terms of its interest rate policy on QT and one which not that long ago it didn't have to think about.
Why do I mention this?
I talk a lot about risk factors in my posts. Risk is an important consideration in determining your investment strategy and your asset allocation.