Nevada Copper Corp NEVDQ

Potential for Peruvian floods December 2023 - May 2024

[bogfit]

“The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) markedly boosted the odds that an El Nio event will form in the tropical Pacific Ocean this summer, hastening climate change and altering global weather patterns.

The big picture: It could lead to the first year in which the global average surface temperatures bump up against the Paris Agreement's more stringent climate change target of 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels, Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at payments company Stripe, told Axios.

The waters of the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean are warming quickly, and at least a moderate El Nio is expected to begin during the May through July period and continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter, NOAA stated Thursday.

The new outlook cites several trends for having increased confidence in El Nio's formation and intensity compared to just one month ago.  These include the increasing sea surface temperatures as well as the presence of unusually warm waters beneath the surface, which are sloshing from the Western Pacific eastward; and shifting trade winds.”

https://www.axios.com/2023/05/11/el-nino-potentially-strong-noaa-warns

“From December 2016 and continuing until May 2017, much of western and central South America was plagued by persistent heavy rain events. In Peru, one of the most severely impacted nations, it has been referred to as the 2017 Coastal Nio (Spanish: El Nio costero de 2017). The flooding was preceded by drought-like conditions throughout the region for much of 2016 and a strong warming of sea temperatures off the coast of Peru.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016%E2%80%9317_South_American_floods

It's that Southern Ocean Oscillation again that I keep ranting about.  Oscillation = back and forth.  After a year of increased precipitation, flooding, and typhoon in Southern Africa, NW Australia, Indonesia, and the Indian Ocean/Western Pacific; and now over the next two or three years increased precipitation and storm strength along Andean Front that will impact mining and transport of concentrate.  Drought conditions are expected to return to Southern Africa again, as in 2018–2021 and negatively affected food security in the region.

We know that both drought and flood reduce food production.  We also know that these storms and weather effects will become stronger and more frequent.  All this points to increasing importance and reliance on domestic sources of basic materials such as copper.  As I’ve stated previously, Pumpkin Hollow is about as weather resistant to climate change as you’ll ever find; half the precipitation or twice as much won’t impact the mining operation.  We fear neither fire nor flood except for perhaps a temporary impasse on the public highway to our railhead. 

If this ol’ desert rat can figure this out, maybe someone in corporate offices might as well.

b.
 
A transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Nio persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter.

During April, above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) expanded slightly westward to the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Nio-3.4 index value was +0.4°C, with the easternmost Nio-3 and Nio1+2 regions at +0.8°C and +2.7°C, respectively [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies continued to increase [Fig. 3], reflecting widespread positive temperature anomalies below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly during mid-April before switching back to easterly by the end of the month. Upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across most of the Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection was observed over parts of Indonesia and anomalies weakened near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. While the warming near coastal South America remains striking, the basin-wide coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral.
 
The most recent IRI plume also indicates El Nio is likely to form during the May-July season and persist into the winter [Fig. 6]. The combination of a forecasted third westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Nio is on the horizon. While at least a weak El Nio is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) include a 80% chance of at least a moderate El Nio (Nio-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C) to a ~55% chance of a strong El Nio (Nio-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C). It is still possible the tropical atmosphere does not couple with the ocean, and El Nio fails to materialize (5-10% chance). In summary, a transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Nio persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter [Fig. 7].”

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml