RE:Oil peaks during the recession or just before it Great post Jay....
It is certainly worth keeping track of commodity prices to help anticipate future levels of economic activity and hence stock prices. I have done this for years.
To your analysis, I would add the predictive qualities of base metals such as copper and nickel. They are called "base metals" for a reason in that they are used in a lot of things. In advance of recession, you will often find that their prices decline from previous peaks.
Unlike Migraine, I am not real good at pasting charts into a SH post...lol - so if you are interested in this google the price charts for copper and nickel and have a look at what is going on.