RE:RE:Any value creation soon From the SP response what little of the market was looking read it as a failed program so it's resurrection (even if briefly before ascension to the drug graveyard *sorry*) is a positive.
I'd love a straight answer to the question of whether they were clinically compelled to call the pause or if this is more like a strategic interim read. I'm now tending towards the latter when earlier I was firmly the former. I'm not trying to fool myself that this is a positive, it's happening because they weren't hitting their target.
Crudely I've started to think there are 3 types of cancer drugs. There are
1) Superstar (that don't necessarily start out as superstars)
2) Mediocre. Not meant to be negative but covers most drugs from approved drugs with good revenue to drugs that get a Ph3 but ultimately fail approval.
3) Duds
I think 1) and 3) show themselves up rather quickly and the original Ph1 protocol would have uncovered these drugs. Our drug is not one of these. The mediocre drugs are a challenge. I guess the hope is for a trouble free clinical program is that you get across the Ph1 finishing line (even if just crawling) and then apply what you've learnt to Ph2. Maybe what TH are doing is applying the learning mid-Ph1. It's a very odd scenario, it arises from the drug underperforming in patients compared to preclinical but maybe it's a cautiously smart thing to do given their tight resource situation. They've taken a hit (and us too) but they get to have an informed 2nd go with the resources at hand. To get to the end of Ph1 with a fail would be a hard place for them to come back from.
I'm still thinking an uphill struggle but maybe rational resource management in a tight situation combined with some genuine remaining clinical possibility is what we have (maybe the poster details will confirm this). We are still in a scenario where they have to deliver something at the end of Ph1 if they want this to move on, they've just oddly and frustratingly decided to take a learning break mid way thru.
This is the best I can do to keep things rational. The alternative is they are greedy parasites, sucking the teet dry while they still can! Gallows lol!
SPCEO1 wrote: My best guess is the stock does not make any major move higher until THTX is able to announce positive TH-1902 data with the restarted trial. The FDA approving the restarted trial, which likely comes next week if it is on time, could boost the stock a bit too. I also would guess that any partnerships, which could boost the stock price, will not happen until there is good data on the restarted trial. Meanwhile, the investor call regarding the restarting of the trial and/or better legacy drug sales could get us some more minor moves higher. I imagine they hope to have good data before issung any additional stock, but there is no guarantee good data will be available on a timely basis. If there is no good data, then the board faces some big decisions as they could get the company t o profitability quickly by abandoning cancer altogether and cutting R&D efforts. There then would be no need for another OO since they would be generating cash and not have a big cash outflow into cancer research. But even if TH-1902 fails to get the results we all desire in the restarted trial, it may be worth continuing to research as clearly there is something there.
Shareholders delivered a very unambiguous message at the AGM regarding the board. THTX heard it. They have yet to respond to that message so that is disappointing. Hopefully, they will not need to wait much longer to put things into action but I am not aware of any movement to do so. While I am not aware of any movement, that does not mean there has not been discussions going on, just that I am not aware of any. It would be much better for all involved, of course, for changes to be made promptly and in accordance with the message shareholders sent at the AGM and in discussions leading up to it. Today marks the third week that has passed since the AGM, so one would think decisions have already been made.
Trogarzon wrote: Hope some of this data creates at least some enthousiasm in the market come June 3. The market is looking at this and asking itself it's it's really good atm and if it is will it peter out as usual come the next day. Or worse will they give a day before killing the momentum with another OO at 10% discount to the market. Ain't inventing this, it all happened before with Thera. Still nothing to say about any board or management shuffle. We only have a 10 word Linkedin from Paul to go on until then.. Bravo guys.