Who knows what ? When or how? I think worth repeating.
Not one person posting on here, including myself knows if or when Onc will have a partner or buy out.
We do know, they have two " phase 3 ready"...opportunities.
one being Mastetis breast cancer, the other being Pancreatic cancer.
Both with FDA " fast track " designation.
We also know, from day one of incorporating they have a mission to prove the science & then let a larger pharma company get Pelareorep to market.
We also know they have on- going " interests" with Pfizer, Roche, Incyte ( Irene study MBc trilple neg).
To say that either has walked away, or close to a deal is pure speculation.
Myself?
I look at the long history.
They had both successes & failures over the years. ( so did Apple ..look up the Lisa)
What matters, is where they are now.
Onc made a paradigm shift when they started aware-1 , Bracelet etc.
They discovered Pelareorep works best as a co- therapy.
All of the trials since 2017/18 have been co- therapy with outside large pharma.
imho, Roche would appear to be the most logical partner or takeover candidate.
If the pancreatic results move forward, similar to the first part of the trial, they have a potential blockbuster.
Regrettably that opportunity may add more time. Then again, we have no idea what results are showing in the whole Goblet gambit.
imaging for a moment: presently pancreatic cancer is more or less a death sentence.
The first set of results with Pela & Tecentriq ( Roche), showed amazing improvement over the existing standard if care. AND...one complete response, tumour gone!
I commend those posting the comparables for buy- out , etc etc.
I also know mangement stated ( years ago), any takeover would have to start with a "B" to even be considered.
meaning one billion $$ and up.
Since then they have proven much more, and now have 2 phase 3 ready opportunities.
Those who point to open market share price as an indicator of buy- out value...please educate yourself.
investopedia has a great explanation how junior biotechs are valued. That being based on future income potential of the drug(s).
In simple terms, if Roche for example wanted to buy Onc? The big question what would the Return on investment be? Long term? For Roche?
Assuming Pela broadens the Pancreatic cancer market for tecentriq & Roche. What would that equate to in sales & profit $$.
That $$ value is what determines, what they could invest in buying Onc.
You will notice the existing SP of Onc has zero to do with that calculation.
The analysts ( all have buy ratings), use that " math" ....project forward. Make assumptions on a product to market date. Then they apply NPV discounts to give a forward looking sp target.
None of the analysts have discussed or estimated a buy- out.
Reason? They need to provide analysis with what they can substantiate.
Such as if Pela gets to market, with a partner etc etc....that is clearly stated as a mission on their web site.
Being bought out is not.
Using present day data & public information the analysts have price targets of $3 to $18.
They all add disclosures. Should phase 3 start, partnership or newer clinical developments, the targets would be raised.
Saying all that, there is nothing stopping any pharma, or larger corporation from stepping up with an offer.
Great week all.