My take on what happened.....This is just a follow up on my previous post here, to explain the unusual trading volumes we've been seeing in Peyto's stock recently. Specifically yesterday's trading. But before i've give you my views on what occurred, i'll just give a brief synopsis of my interactions & past experiences with Peyto.
First off, just a simple disclaimer, i'm not currently a s/h here of the company's stock. But i was and held it several times in the distant past. With so many other Canadian O&G Eps, i've been following Peyto for well over two decades. Nearly since the very start, and my experinece with this sector goes back to the early 90's. So i do KNOW quite a bit about it from an investor standpoint. Even when i was no longer a holder of it's equity, i STILL followed the company to some degree to monitor its progression & development, as i have with so many others. But Peyto is a special case, one that i have an eye on quite frequently because of it's unique position in the Canadian oil patch.
So what REALLY happened here? After taking 24 hres to analyze the situation with all the information that's publically available AND making some calculated assumptions, this is what i think went down to explain the trading. First, just to make a comment on my previous post on here and the replies from other investors to that post. I just want to say that of all the comments that were made, i totally agree with EVERYTHING that was said by my fellow investor Mr. MikeySwoosh. For those wwho don't know or missed what Mr. MikeySwoosh said regarding yesterday's events, i strongly advise you click my previous post, find his reply to it and read the whole thing. I think (and beleive!) everything he said is SPOT on right on target, and more or less explains the entire situation. From this point, i will just add to it, from my own perspective.
If folks are still not aware, the company released "some" news after market close late in the evening. Late for some maybe not late for others depending where you live. But it was AFTER the market closed. News which my mind probably explains why the stock traded such a huge amount of volume without ANY other developments being made public or known. So what was this news and does it justify the volume we witnessed? Basically, the company released an update to their s/h meeting and the results from that meeting. And IF you're an shareholder here, you should take note of two critical points. One was mentioned by MikeySwoosh stating one of its director Dale Gray "barely" getting by & reelected. The other, was the departure of two others.
Now i'll focus on that second point, which may shed "some" light on why Peyto traded so heavily that day. Here i'll assume the following. One i saw the volume yesterday, i said one of two things this is either insider related OR it's not, and if it is then there should be a huge block trade to account for the majority of that volume. And with our good fortune and sharp eyed perceptive members like Newcoin, who confirmed the cross of 4,5M, it explains half of the story. Why only half? Because we could assume who it could possbily be & maybe why, but it doesn't account for everything. So here i'll assume that it was insiders, and most probably related to the departures and the voting that took place in that meeting. And like MikeySwoosh mentioned, i wouldn't be surprised if there's a HUGE & important disgruntled investor implicated in there, somewhere as well.
This is WHAT i believe took place. Now this doesn't explain all, but i think it gives a decent & close approximation of the whole situation. Aside from thr trading & internal struggles, we all know that Peyto has some other "issues' to deal with, both operational & financial. The latter being the more crucial one and an enormous achilles heel for Peyto and it's s/h. But nothing that cannot be dealth with IF they take the problem head on and make the necessary adjustments or take the proper measures to rectify it. The biggeest issue of course being the rather large debt load they carry (and have been carrying for some time!) and their ability to service it under these difficult & challenging conditions.
I could continue on here, for quite some time on all the issues but that's for another time, another day and i think i made my point very clear. Besides, this post is already quite a long read and it was intended only for commentary on the recent trading and nothing else. So if anyone has other questions, i'll try to answer them IF i can in s timely manner. Well folks, that's it for now and i hope i've shed some light on what transpired.
GLTA