Forger the fundamentals, the technicals, or the "potential"It's all about the mechanics of the market.
When 2.5 million shares of an underperforming new issue in a stock with an average volume of 80,000 shares suddenly become available to trade after a 4-month lockup, the stock doesn't go up.
Particularly when the trust of the very CEO who bought the same issue has been selling throughout the lock-up period.
That simply doesn't happen, and it won't.