RE:RE:RE:RE:Market TighteningThis is still a small company and it takes awhile to grow. About 20 years ago, maybe even on this site, there was talk about using debt to annualized to cashflow to guage safety. The post mentioned using a number of two as being high, with the thinking being that if the company stopped all spending how long would it take to pay off the debt. A person can use any number they like though I did observe charts trending down when the ratio got above two.
Then I did spreadsheets for a company trying to calculate cashflow and netbacks. This weekend I tried a different approach as their are more pricing variables, and NGLs pricing seems allover the place. I was trying to get an idea of how the companies compared to each other product wise and generally. as a supplement to 'the activity' or lack of it management talks about. I'll try posting what I did this weekend using last quarter's number's, hopefully it pastes good. The companies used have very different personalities and I do not have ONE criteria I use. For dividend safety, the spreadsheet is using 'conditional formatting to highlight good cells, the more good cells the better.
Pine Cliff Energy is interesting this quarter as a dividend payer without debt having net cashflow, a cash pile, and little spending. I do not remember seeing companies like this 20 years ago.
Now hopefully this material gets into the post safely....
| | Gear Energy Ltd. | Pine Cliff Energy Ltd. | Inplay Oil Corp. | Cardinal Energy Ltd. | Surge | Peyto | Whitecap | Hemisphere |
| Price | 1.00 | 1.47 | 2.51 | 6.82 | 7.33 | 11.19 | 9.48 | 1.27 |
| Shares Issued | 261,211,907 | 351,607,130 | 89,103,401 | 159,638,699 | 98,334,459 | 174,792,822 | 606,443,428 | 101,273,639 |
| Market Cap. | 261,211,907 | 516,862,481 | 223,649,537 | 1,088,735,927 | 720,791,584 | 1,955,931,678 | 5,749,083,697 | 128,617,522 |
| Price/Operating Cashflow | 4.37 | 5.79 | 2.52 | 6.62 | 3.31 | 2.66 | 3.07 | 3.56 |
| (Boed/D) | 5,952 | 20,076 | 9,020 | 21,726 | 25,138 | 102,918 | 155,124 | 3,171 |
| (Boed/D)/Million Shares | 23 | 57 | 101 | 136 | 256 | 589 | 256 | - |
| Operating Cashflow/Share | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.55 | 1.05 | 0.77 | 0.09 |
| Operating Cashflow/Total Liabilities | 13% | 9% | 13% | 17% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 36% |
| Profit for the Period | 1,990,000 | 4,985,000 | 9,291,000 | 16,321,000 | 14,789,000 | 89,981,000 | 262,600,000 | 5,958,000 |
| Operating Cashflow | 14,933,000 | 22,326,000 | 22,224,000 | 41,089,000 | 54,506,000 | 183,606,000 | 468,600,000 | 9,034,000 |
| Dividends Paid | 7,826,000 | 11,413,000 | 3,973,000 | 28,742,000 | 11,095,000 | 57,677,000 | 87,700,000 | 2,545,000 |
| Dividend % of Operating Cashflow | 52% | 51% | 18% | 70% | 20% | 31% | 19% | 28% |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Additions to Property Plant and Equipment | 17,992,000 | 4,441,000 | 29,568,000 | 24,455,000 | 45,733,000 | 121,802,000 | 253,600,000 | 1,415,000 |
| Growth Capex Depreciation Coverage | 7,429,000 | -6,005,000 | 17,821,000 | -538,000 | 1,376,000 | 44,794,000 | 38,000,000 | -797,000 |
| Net Cashflow | 0 | 7,141,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -7,678 | 0 | 2,578,000 |
| Free Op. Cashflow after Dividends and Capex (Debt Capex) | -10,885,000 | 6,472,000 | -11,317,000 | -12,108,000 | -2,322,000 | 4,127,000 | 127,300,000 | 5,074,000 |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Dividend % of Profit | 393% | 229% | 43% | 176% | 75% | 64% | 33% | 43% |
| Dividend % of Profit, Growth Capex, Net Cashflow | 83% | 186% | 15% | 182% | 69% | 43% | 29% | 33% |
| Dividend % of Profit and Net Cashflow | 393% | 94% | 43% | 176% | 75% | 64% | 33% | 30% |
| Dividend % of Free Op. Cashflow and Net Cashflow | -72% | 84% | -35% | -237% | -478% | 1400% | 69% | 33% |
| Dividend % of Profit and Debt Capex | 28% | | 9% | 41% | 15% | | | |
| Debt/Operating Cashflow | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.28 | 1.52 | 1.20 | 0.78 | 0.00 |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Cash | 0 | 61,569,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,227,000 | 0 | 2,730,000 |
| Net Debt | -15,176,000 | 0 | -47,311,000 | -45,320,000 | -331,917,000 | -877,827,000 | -1,471,100,000 | 0 |
| Total Liabilities | -115,206,000 | -252,152,000 | -175,969,000 | -235,491,000 | -680,591,000 | -1,531,036,000 | -3,967,900,000 | -25,362,000 |
| Retained Earnings (deficit) | -120,064,000 | -166,751,000 | -3,140,000 | -199,539,000 | -985,659,000 | 463,746,000 | 334,200,000 | -16,055,000 |
| Direction of Retained Earnings (deficit) | Falling | Falling | Rising | Falling | Rising | Rising | Rising | Rising |
| Shareholder Equity | 246,103,000 | 128,214,000 | 456,061,000 | 908,314,000 | 860,937,000 | 2,305,076,000 | 5,915,300,000 | 56,171,000 |
| Direction of Shareholder Equity | Falling | Falling | Rising | Falling | Rising | Rising | Rising | Rising |