RE:Method I gave you the short answer but the longer answer is I think they want to close the discount.
I think I have some insight given I had the chance to speak to Duncan and hear him answer other questions at the AGMs from 2015-2019 and have had a few conversations with the CFO & CIO the last few years. I think I'm the only one who sent questions in for the first two pandemic AGMS. I don't think they received any questions this year. I never asked if they would take it private and nothing they said indicated they were even considering it.
That being said, that doesn't mean I'm right. I'm wrong at least a third of the time but if wrong here my returns get accelerated so I'm happy to be wrong in this case. I wish my margin of safety was this good in all of my investments. I think only Fairfax might apply in my portfolio. If you haven't looked in a while, check out the Business Brew podcast. I went on a podcast 2 months ago with a friend of mine to sing its praises. I mentioned ELF too (I think!).
I think there is evidence they want to close the discount. They have bought back 40% of the float. Paid two special dividends and tripled the regular dividend. The buyback was aided in 2020 by having access to public markets as they raised $200m in 30-yr debt at a 4% coupon. That's like free money now with the BOC rate at 5%. They used it to buy stock back that is worth more than 3x that based on the current liquidation value. The ability to do that "trade" is one of the reasons I think they stay public even though it costs money. It’s a cheap option.
Empire Life will still have to file its financials anyway as large insurance company with a complicated capital structure so the incremental savings is not as much as you might think to the holdco. ELF also has preferred outstanding which provide cheap leverage so they would effectively be public unless they are willing to give that up. Shareholders are currently benefiting from that leverage.
Maybe someday someone will write a book on ELF and it will trade at a big premium to NAV because they are exceptionally patient capital allocators. Or maybe the NAV discount will be as volatile over the next 50 years as it has been for the past 50. There are only 500k shares left.