RE:Another Possible Conflict that Could Slow Global Oil Supplycpeczek wrote: Venezuela is hosting a referendum in 2 weeks to officially lay claim to 2/3rds of neighbouring Guyana. Guyana has found massive amounts of oil offshore through mostly American led explorations and has been the fastest growing economy over the last few years as a result. The GDP per capita for the country actually surpassed Canada a year or two ago although that has not translated too well for living standards there yet.
Venezuela has claims on those 2/3rds from the time of the Spanish Empire and it seems like the government there wants to officially lay claim as a distraction from internal economic issues. When this likely passes the government may try to attack Guyanese (and maybe American) ships in their claimed ocean territory and possibly invade the land or could just rattle sabres and bide their time.
If Venezuela thinks that the US isn't going to get involved because they are focused on Israel and Ukraine they might actually fully launch the attack which may or may not trigger an American response. This could disrupt Guyanese and Venezuelan production and exports.
So we now have the potential of:
-Middle East War spilling over into oil producing states
-Azerbaijan attacking Armenia and likely being sanctioned from oil/natural gas exports
-Venezuela attacking Guyanese oil operations in the ocean, blockading them from exporting or fully attacking the country
as well as Russia still attacking Ukraine and remaining under sanctions and Iran remaining under sanctions.
What a wild few years this has been.
So much conflict taking place worldwide, it's becoming difficult to keep track of it all.
My guess is that the current "risk premium" in crude spot prices is currently too low.
Oil market participants are now attempting to guess how long and how deep this recession will be.
It's a moving target, so we are seeing some large % price swings daily.
Not sure when global recession ends, but when it does, $100 oil might be a new norm.
Don't go bet the farm, just have some exposure. Even GH shares are ok for low-risk oil exposure.