RE:fomo and forgot about the right-sizingThe North American market is not yet "fully open". We can easily say this due to the US not having Cannabis Federally legal at this point so some States (markets) are still not seeing the level of legal sales they should be.
The Canadian Market may / may not be fully exploited yet (depends on how you look at it) due to the fact that some areas have a high level of stores available while others have none. This will get sorted out over time and we may see some incremental sales coming in simply due to Consumers having ready access to Cannabis vs going to Black Market sellers.
The BlackMarket is not going to go away over-night, this is completely unrealistic IMHO and it was likely the case when Alchol came out of prohibition back in the 30's (slightly before my time). Even today we can still see some Black Market Alchol sales in parts of the US but they are hard to find now. I suspect that will be the case in decades to come for Cannabis (virtually gone but still out there). Market Share held by the BM is always difficult to estimate however 40-50% would not surprise me. These dollars will slowly but surely start getting collected by Legal Cannabis providers as the illegal ones are shut down and consumers are given better access to legal / safer alternatives. The shift will not be over-night but it is what I expect to see if the future.
Market share for larger players can be expected to grow (to some amount) as smaller players fold due to price compression. I certainly see TLRY brands as one of (if not THE) largest players with more capability to compete on price (as needed). With that said I would also support the CEO with any plans to compete based on Product Quality and Consumer Brand Loyality as their products (as I have tested to-date) appear to be above-par. I believe (as a consumer) that many will pay a little more over alternatives for a much better product.
I need to cut this off here, but again, I would suggest everyone check ou that recent interview the Tilray CEO did with The Dales Report / Trade to Black as he actually touches off these topics and provides his own view as to how things will shape up in the future.
Best Regards
Q