Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/article/4638933-nano-one-north-americas-answer-to-china
Investor Takeaway
Despite the positive steps the company has been making recently, investors will need to remain patient as Nano One continues to progress toward commercialization. I don’t expect the Candiac facility to reach commercial scale (10,000 tpa) until the end of 2026 at the earliest. While this could be enough to get the ball rolling in the public markets, the company still has much to prove in terms of partner scalability.
As such, shares likely won’t fully respond until the company achieves significant scale by way of licensing and JVs. For that reason, I expect much of the company’s value to remain unrealized through the remainder of the decade.
This doesn’t mean there won’t be rewards for shareholders that hold on the path to commercialization. I expect shareholders to be rewarded with a CAGR of >30% up until commercialization, at which point growth would become somewhat parabolic.
Assuming the company is able to execute on its commercial vision, a multi billion dollar valuation by 2030 doesn’t seem out of reach for the company. Essentially, I believe that Nano One is a massive winner, so long as it is able to achieve successful commercialization.
This makes its real “fair value” less relevant, especially as this isn’t really something that’s possible to calculate at the company’s current stage. Instead, I think it’s important to focus on the perceived chances of success and timeline to significant scale.
Following its successful 2,000 tpa reactor tests, Nano One has significantly improved its odds of commercial success. Given the level of confidence this creates for Nano One’s commercial success, and its strong partner network, the company’s current value provides an asymmetric opportunity given the ample upside a successful implementation provides.
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