Nuvista Energy Ltd T.NVA

Nat gas

[Carjack]

Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, March 20, 2024)

 

Prices

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 33 cents from $1.24 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.57/MMBtu yesterday. 
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the April 2024 NYMEX contract increased 4.1 cents, from $1.658/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.699/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging April 2024 through March 2025 futures contracts increased 2.1 cents to $2.709/MMBtu. 
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot price changes were mixed this report week (Wednesday, March 13 to Wednesday, March 20). Price changes ranged from an increase of $1.46/MMBtu at Algonquin Citygate to a decrease of $0.28/MMBtu at SoCal Citygate.
  • Natural gas prices in the Northeast increased this report week. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went up $1.46 from $1.20/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.66/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price increased 60 cents from $1.13/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.73/MMBtu yesterday. The Algonquin Citygate price increased nearly $1.00 from Tuesday to yesterday. Tennessee Gas Pipeline issued an operational flow order, effective March 21, for all areas east of Herkimer County, New York, on the 200 line, and all areas east of Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania, on the 300 line, because of forecasted colder weather and expectations of increased natural gas demand. Both pipelines deliver natural gas into the New England market and the 300 line connects with pipelines delivering into the New York City market. Near Appalachian Basin producing activities, the Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus price increased 45 cents from $1.05/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.50/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Eastern Gas South in southwest Pennsylvania rose 47 cents from $1.03/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.50/MMBtu yesterday. In the Pittsburgh Area, temperatures fell from an average of 60°F at the start of the report week to an average of 32°F on Monday, March 18. Temperatures averaged 44°F for the report week, resulting in 143 heating degree days (HDD), 30 more HDDs than last week. 
  • Prices across the West Coast declined this week. At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price fell 14 cents from $1.50/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.36/MMBtu yesterday. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell 12 cents, down from $2.43/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.31/MMBtu yesterday, and the price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 28 cents from $1.79/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.51/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in the Western region decreased 5% (0.6 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Temperatures in the Seattle City Area averaged 52°F, resulting in 89 HDDs, 43 fewer HDDs than last week. Residential and commercial sector consumption fell 38% (0.5 Bcf/d) in the Pacific Northwest and 7% (0.2 Bcf/d) in California. 
  • In West Texas near Permian Basin production activities, the price at the Waha Hub remained negative at -$0.26/MMBtu yesterday, down 1 cent from last Wednesday. The Waha Hub price was below zero for the entire report week and traded $1.83 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared with last Wednesday when it traded $1.49 below the Henry Hub price. The price reached its lowest for the week at -$1.16/MMBtu on Monday, March 18. After several warnings during the report week of strained operating conditions, on March 21, El Paso Natural Gas Company (EPNG) issued a system-wide operational flow order, encouraging shippers to balance natural gas deliveries and receipts. Ongoing maintenance on the EPNG pipeline system, which delivers natural gas westbound out of the Permian Basin, is also contributing to lower prices this week. 
• International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices increased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased 82 cents to a weekly average of $9.27/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands increased 70 cents to a weekly average of $8.84/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending March 22, 2023), the prices were $13.24/MMBtu in East Asia and $13.14/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 24 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.39/MMBtu for the week ending March 20. Ethane prices fell 3%, while natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel rose 2%, reducing the ethane premium to natural gas by 8%. The ethylene spot price was essentially unchanged, and the ethylene premium to ethane rose 2% this report week. Propane prices rose 4%, Brent crude oil prices rose 2%, and the propane discount to crude oil was essentially unchanged. Normal butane prices rose 2%, isobutane prices rose 13%, and natural gasoline prices rose 3% this report week. 

Top

 

Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.4% (0.4 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.2% (0.2 Bcf/d) to average 101.4 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada fell 5.0% (0.2 Bcf/d) from last week. 
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 1.8% (1.4 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation increased by 3.3% (1.0 Bcf/d) week over week. Residential and commercial sector consumption increased by 1.6% (0.4 Bcf/d), and industrial sector consumption increased by 0.1% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 0.1% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 12.9 Bcf/d, or 0.4 Bcf/d lower than last week.

Top

 

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals decreased by 2.8% (0.4 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 12.9 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 2.0% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 8.8 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in Texas decreased 6.8% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 2.9 Bcf/d. Freeport LNG, south of Houston, Texas, has been operating at reduced levels since mid-January following a winter storm and anticipates operating with only one liquefaction train until May. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were flat at 1.2 Bcf/d.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-one LNG vessels (eight from Sabine Pass; four each from Cameron and Corpus Christi; two each from Calcasieu Pass and Cove Point; and one from Freeport) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 78 Bcf departed the United States between March 14 and March 20, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

Top

 

Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, March 12, the natural gas rig count increased by 1 rig from a week ago to 116 rigs. The Haynesville added two rigs, the Eagle Ford added one rig, the Marcellus dropped one rig, and one rig was dropped among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs increased by 6 rigs from a week ago to 510 rigs. The Permian added three rigs, the Eagle Ford added two rigs, three rigs were added among unidentified producing regions, and the Granite Wash dropped two rigs. The total rig count, which includes 3 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 629 rigs, 125 fewer rigs than last year at this time. 

Top

 

Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 7 Bcf for the week ending March 15, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net withdrawals of 42 Bcf and last year's net withdrawals of 68 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,332 Bcf, which is 678 Bcf (41%) more than the five-year average, 411 Bcf (21%) more than last year at this time, and 306 Bcf (15%) more than the five-year maximum.
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net withdrawals of 6 Bcf to net injections of 17 Bcf, with a median estimate of net injections of 3 Bcf.
• The average rate of withdrawals from storage is 26% lower than the five-year average so far in the withdrawal season (November through March). If the rate of withdrawals from storage matched the five-year average of 1.3 Bcf/d for the remainder of the withdrawal season, the total inventory would be 2,311 Bcf on March 31, which is 678 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 1,633 Bcf for that time of year.