Brookfield Office Properties Inc T.BPO.PR.A

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:2024

[SONOFFERGUS]

Hi.

I have zero insight on any of these reports or how they relate to bond prices or stock prices or anything else.  I try to avoid them or trade around reactions.  Mr. Market tends to overdo it, as you know. 

It looked to me like the market had its reaction yesterday afternoon so BAM payoff would be asymmetric.  It got $2+ cheaper so I figured it was time to load up on a stock I like a lot for when money gets cheaper.

My general premise is "higher for longer" so I have positioned for rates to hang within the current range through to next year but to move down eventually. My floaters and 2024 fixed resets have been great, while my high-dividend-paying defensives have been awful.

It seems to me that GoCs have already made a big move so policy rates coming down in 25bp increments won't move the needle much.  How are our long bonds trading so far inside the US?  What would further dollar weakening do to inflation, kinda defeating the purpose of rate cuts?

My sense of shorts is they don't hang around.  If I were a short shop, I'd be looking for complicated corporate structures, asset valuation questions and intercompany transactions as low-hanging fruit.  Hello, BN and friends!  These short reports are a good trading opportunity though.  Short along with the report, hold a week, swing to long.  I might try that on the next.

Best,

Sonoffergus