RE:RE:RE:RE:Recent two quarters tell a lot ... So did the Analysis ...From the end of February to pretty well the end of April, the backlog has grown by $2.5 million. There were no sales announcements during this period. So, one can deduce that these $2.5 million in orders consisted of many smaller custom equipment orders.
In my napkin analysis of the potential revenues for the upcoming Q4, Q1, Q2, and Q3, I added the estimate of $1 million per month of these types of orders on top of the existing total $22.9 million order backlog. This is rounded down from the $1.25 million and I believe it is a good rough estimate and consistent with similar information presented in the past.
Notwithstanding, a number of us believe that the share price is suffering because of lack of better or ineffectively communicated information by the CEO to give the investment community a succint bullish interpretation of what he is seeing. Maybe he sticks to his conservative, less risky communication style because he doesn't care about the monthly or weekly SP volatility since he is confident that as business develops and the results are announced, the SP will react postively and catch up. I appreciate that view, but I think he needs to stretch himself out a little bit more in terms of being promotional with the explicit objective of that information being reflected in the share price. Higher share price can provide additional options for growing the company faster, and I would think every CEO would appreciate a broader set of tools to choose from.
He should start talking about the potential pipeline beyond the actual backlog orders and start giving a better sense of timing. The average one-year from initiating a PDA to coming to a purchase decision does not seem to hold when you have tens of PDAs and then you have 3-4 months of silence (recognizing that not every decision is a "go"). Unless the business is so seasonal that all the PDAs are usually obtained and completed during the same X months of a year, and if so, that would be good to know.