NUTRIEN TO HOST INVESTOR DAY
THE TD COWEN INSIGHT
On June 12, Nutrien will host an Investor Day (focus will be on the company's outlook, strategic plans and capital-allocation priorities). Webcast registration link.
Impact: NEUTRAL
Investor Day Preview: We do not expect any material changes in NTR's strategy. Instead, we believe management will focus on discussing current priorities/key initiatives within each of NTR's core segments, and its overall capital-allocation priorities. Further, based on management's commentary during the company's Q1/24 conference call, we expect NTR to discuss how its various strategic initiatives in each segment are helping support improvement in the quality of the company's earnings and cash conversion.
Regarding the Potash segment, we believe management will discuss investments in potash mine automation projects and other initiatives aimed at improving productivity and reducing costs. For Nitrogen, we expect management to discuss reliability improvement initiatives and in-flight brownfield projects. For Retail, we expect the discussion to focus on proprietary products growth opportunities, network optimization, digital initiatives, selective tuck-in acquisitions, and the previously announced process to divest NTR's retail assets in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay.
Capital Allocation: We expect NTR to continue to pursue a balanced approach to capital allocation through the cycle. Although NTR has not provided 2024 cash flow from operations (CFO) guidance, recall that in the past, management has guided to an EBITDA to CFO conversion ratio of ~70%. Based on our 2024 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $5.679bln, this conversion rate implies CFO of ~$4.0bln. As a reminder, NTR's 2024 capex guidance range is $2.2bln–$2.3bln, while annual lease payments and dividends currently consume ~ $0.4bln and ~$1.1bln, respectively.
Fertilizer and Crop Price Update: Since Nutrien's Q1/24 results release in early May (see our Q1/24 note here), key fertilizer prices have been mostly flat to down. Midwest and Brazil potash are essentially unchanged, NOLA urea is down 4%, and Tampa ammonia is down 11%.
Regarding crop prices, U.S. wheat, soybean, and corn prices have declined slightly since NTR reported Q1/24 results (-4%, -3%, and -2%, respectively). Relative to 10-year historical average price levels, U.S. soybeans, wheat, and corn are currently +7%, +3%, and -1%, respectively.