Hecla Mining Co HL

Money managers are going to have fun with this Q

[HuskySW]

Shamlessly copied from PurpleGoggles.  Thanks Purple. :)

Interesting take, Purple ran some number comparison Q1 to Q2

Start of Purple...

I have roughly estimated earnings of .06 - .07 next Q based on last Q's production and this Q's prices:

 

Gold - 35,000 oz sold X $200 (avg gold price appreciation over last Q) $7,000,000

Silver - 3,500,000 troy oz sold x $5 (avg sil price appreciation over last Q) $17,500,000

Lead - 38,000,000 lbs sold. 1/2 of lead production is hedged @ .98 per pound for 2024-25

Was up as high as $1.06 during Q, avg was about $1.03 significantly higher than last Q

Avg realized price last Q was .97. 38,000,000 x .06 = $2,280,000

Zinc - 50,000,000 lbs sold. Zinc was up as high as $1.42, avg for Q is approx $1.30. Last Q

realized price was $1.10. There are hedges here as well...monetization of zinc hedges:

50,000,000 X .20 = $10,000,000 (Likely more than this production wise)

Total: $36,780,000 / 627,000,000 shares = .0588 cents per share. rounding to .06

Edit

• Numerous other factors like Canadian to US $ exchange rate, insurance proceeds, etc. impacting this, but I am going with .06 - .07 per share as they have held back both gold, silver in treasury last few Qs and production of lead and zinc should be higher with Lucky Friday fully online. Feel free to poke holes in this as I am not an accountant and yeah...a lot could be charged off accounting-wise...

Previously

I'm inclined to believe that there is some validity to the options impact on Hecla price suppression. The shorts are also actively betting against the trend. According to my broker, short positioning actually increased by almost two million shares over the past month. This thought process runs counterintuitive to the recent surge in PM prices. That said, I agree that if the algo "blows up" & shorts capitulate, there is an high likelihood that we will see some extreme parabolic moves in HL. With gold making new all time highs every other day, it would seem to me that this potential "day of reckoning" is not that far off.

End of Purple

I like that Purple took the time to run some numbers with assuptions.  I thiknk 6c is a stretch, but two things I know is that even GAAP accepted books can be "pushed" to swing one way or the other.  The other is the investment houses doing as they will to their benefit. 

Right now the share price is roughly the same as six months ago and silver has gone from 24 to 30+ (approx).  That should be sayong something.  LOL  Will this stock keep declining  untill Q2 and then magically go up, who knows but I wouldn't be surprised.

So are the institutions slowly accumulating at low(er) prices just to run it up, who know but 7$ could be doable at 6c but 10$ might be a stretch.

I this thing goes much lower (4$ ish) might be worth a rebalance, but for sure I would cash the gains asap.  lol

Now what I want to see in Q2 is exactly how much did they spend on Keno Hill, Casa and various expenses in Nevada.  KH threw them some surprises with expenses for ground condtions and Casa went open pit.  You can be sure both of those things they did not need.

Have fun and enjoy.  It's only money. :)