The case for the SP to remain flat Folks,
One of the first posts I made on this forum years ago was outlining the fact based case about why the Ishkoday should be considered as a probable buy out target at some point in the future. Most on this and other boards are very familar with the inarguable facts that support that thesis and of course they have not changed over time.
What has changed over time is the sentiment of retail investors and some of the "friends and family" who have grown tired of what appears to be an endless stream of at times puzzling actions and excuses for repeated delays provided by the current LME leadership. Those actions may be open to intepretation but on balance the steps they have taken do not follow the traditional form that juniors have used in the past as they work towards a disposition.
I am remined of the old management advice about the dangers of specualting about what someone is doing, rather than focusing on the facts about what they are NOT doing.
In this case the fact is that they have not done what they said they would do. Yet.
Simply put, while the LME leadership team has failed to deliver on their own stated objective so far, and the stock price has suffered, they have maintained the confidence of the majority of shareholders up to this point. That may change should there be another normal AGM. Time will tell.
Until then, the stock price is going to remain flat and here's why:
Any "new" money will most likely view LME through the traditional filters of geological facts about the property- strike 1 - no MRE. Then it's experienced relevant leadership on the board - strike 2 - no one but the CEO. Analyst coverage - strike 3 - they have none. Any traditional mining institutional investors i.e. Sprott and the like - nope Strike 4. Full time communications officer - nope - Strike 5. Stock performance vs their quality peers in the last 3 years - Strike 6." Reckless, public posts by the CEO's spouse in the past - in all caps - pointing to an imminent ALL CASH transaction that failed to materialize. Strike 7. Hiring an experienced mining M&A team to assist in the disposition. Not so much- Strike 8.
I could go on but you see the point.
Very, very few people would jump on this story at this stage unless they have information that allows them to set aside many of the strikes I've listed above.
That class of information would have to be coming from an valid, trusted inside source from inside one of the parties involved in the transaction. If material trading takes placenas a result it would trigger a stop trade order and require leadership to engage with the regulators - again - didn't we see that 4 years ago- and verify their behind the scenes activity.
The recent speculation about the current leadership team being "close" to achieving thieir disposition goal makes sense if for no other reason than the passage of time, what seems to be a new "normal" for the price of gold and a lack of supply of gold oz's in politically stable geographies.
My advice to shareholders that have been around since the early days is to revisit the inarguable fact set of the Ishkoday property and wait to see if Cynthia's unusual strategy to sell the company rewards you for your patience.
I think that in time, you will be rewarded with a buy out price that we'll all agree is fair and reasonable.
The quantum of the sale price vs the current share price will most likely be modest but good enough for you to look back on this journey as something that "was worth it".
Of course, this type of post may not lead to many "thumbs up" ratings for me but perhaps if you take the time to consider my arguement you'll keep what shares you have in hand and wait a bit longer.
I considered writing this using Go Go lingo but pulled myself back from that idea!
I remain long.
Time and Money