KNT 3rdQ Earnings and Price Poossibility Before we look at stage 3 one year down the road where we're
selling 75k eq oz per quarter, let's look at this quarter. The data
below is over the last 4 quarters:
Year. 2024. 2023
2nd q 1st q 4th 3rd
Gold Price 2246 2016 1898 1848
AISC 1510 1366 1062 1300
Diff: GP - AISC. 736. 650. 836. 548
AU oz sold 19.1k 28.0k 33.2k 18.3k
Revs 47.8M 59.8M 75.3M 32.8M
Income 6.1M 3.1M 20.0M 32.8M
Margin 13% 5% 27% 0%
EPS diluted +0.03 +0.01 +0.08 0.0
1.) The largest margin occurred when the gold price
and the AISC had the largest differential... not the
highest gold price
2.) We already know that KNT intends to produce
"70k plus" AU eq oz in the 2nd half. So I assume 35k
per quarter.
3.) If knt can realize a gold price at $2400 for 3rd
(now at $2514 thru 2/3 of 3rd q) and if KNT can
reduce the AISC to $1300 or below, then the
gp- AISC differential will exceed $1000.
If that occurs, it may mean $0.10/share as a minimum.
Therefore, if P/E= 40 (now 46) and eps= 0.22 ttm
(0.10+ 0.03+ 0.01+ 0.08) then P=8.8 for kntnf.
That's a 60% return between now and mid- Nov eps.
* add'l data from 2nd q 2020: GP= $1576, AISC= $678
gold oz sold= 22.1; net margin (revs/income)= 35%
So, it looks like one key will be for knt to work toward
their target of AISC< $1000.
Just one opinion based on data on near term potential
if no more speed bumps.