Why BBD can reach 155 in 2024 VS 138 delivered in 20232023: Q1: 22 delivered + Q2 29 delivered = 51 for 1st half of 2023
2023: Q3 31 delivered (vs CCAR listed 25 exported , so, + 6 then expected)
+ Q4 56 delivered (vs CCAR 48 exported, so, +8 then expect)
= 87 delivered for 2nd half of 2023 = TOTAL OF 138 (51 + 87) delivered IN 2023
2024: Q1 20 delivered + Q2 39 delivered = 59 for the 1st half of 2024 (so, 8 more then the 51 in 2023)
SO, if BBD delivered in 2024 the same number as 2023 2nd half year = 87
PLUS, the 59 so far in the 1st half of the 2024 = 146
So, for the 1st half of the 2024 year BBD delivered 8 more the the same period in 2023. So, its take only 4 more planes to delivered on the 2nd half year 2024 then the total of the 2nd half year of 2023, 87 (total 2nd half 2023) + 59 (so far in 1st half of 2024) + 4 (more then 2023, 87+ 4 = 91) = 150.
BUT, in the 1st half of this year, BBD was able to delivered 8 more planes then 1st half of 2023 (59 vs 51), its normal or conservative to expect BBD will be able to delivered 8 more for the 2nd half 2024 (VS) then 2023, if so, 59 (2024) + 87 (2023) +8 = 154.
During the Q3 2023, remember, CCAR report only 25 exported planes for BBD AND the Q3 2023 report give 31 planes delivered ( + 6 then expected) , so, lets say we reach only 4 more then expected in 2024 for the Q3
+
During Q4 2023, CCAR give 48 exported VS 56 delivered in Q4 2023 , so, 8 more then expected, so, lets say we reach only 5 more then expected
thats bring easely 155 planes delivered