Authenticity of the LME USCG pdf Folks,
I'll start with the point I am trying to make.
By noon today we'll find out if the LME USCG pdf is a fake. If is not the real thing both LME and USCG will speak up and correct it.
My view is that it is the real thing and it's good news.
Here's why:
It's the first time we had someone put a GEO number on the table for the Ishkoday property at 2.5m.
That figure must be - in my view - supported only by drilling facts.
The deck we saw is most likely an internal USCG document that they use to introduce the opportunity to a broad range of investors best described as suspects. Other than the GEO number the content is all publicly available information from the LME web page and in their corporate presentation.
Should an investor show interest they would be qualified and vetted by USCG, then they'd sign an NDA and a call would be held to share the proposed strategy for USCG to acquire LME in detail.
That plan would contain the facts that support the 2.5m geos, what the computer models - several of them - predict is the total GEO's the property has - more than 2.5m obviously.
The price the USCG fund would pay for the property now. ($350 USD per GEO?) along with examples of recent similar deals that support the price they propose to pay.
The costs and time required to drill to prove the properties GEO number - get it to double, maybe triple the current 2.5m figure.
The list of all the organizations that would be involved in proving the GEO's and a timeline to get the work done.
The role that Cynthia would continue to play to guide the work for at least a couple of years.
I am just scratching the surface of the kind of information that would be required by someone who would want to potentially invest in a USCG vehicle designed to get the Ishkoday to a place where a major could convince their Board to buy it.
I agree that Doug could use a lesson in reading the room before he writes and that being conservative in that way he refers to the future would be a helpful strategy.
I chose to ignore his hyperbole and saw yesterday as a good day for retail LME shareholders.
Some may disagree and choose to focus on why someone at CIBC wants to sell a big chunk of their holdings at .40 rather than thinking through the known fact pattern and that's ok.
Keep in mind the seller can pull their sell order in the event of a stop trade announcement so the penalty for putting that order in place will not be the massive loss that it appears to be at the moment.
If you are long and focused on the fact pattern I think you'll agree thay we are in a better place today as retail investors than we were a few days ago. Although it's hard to do with this investment, steady hands will win the day on this one and you'll be glad you withstood the storm when this is over.
Open to rational thoughts if you care to reply.
I remain long. (Frustrated for sure, but long never the less)
Time and Money