FFO, Capex, FFF Guidance, and beyondPer Parex's updated full 2024 guidance in their Aug 28 update they expect the following in 2H 2024:
Brent Avg: $80
FFO $226M
Capex $197M
FFF $29M
The dividend costs $28M/Q, $56M/H + buybacks $10M July+future (although they said they would do buybacks with excess FFF which there won't be any) + lower Brent price. All that considered they are definitely taking on debt or at least edging toward it this quarter.
Taking on some debt to maintain consistency for shareholders is prudent in the short term and they need successful exploration & drilling to increase production or their dividend will become unsustainable at these capex levels.
If updated 2024 guidance is carried forward into 2025, here it is:
FFO $452M
Capex $380M
FFF $72M
Dividend cost/yr $154M. That's double the dividend and nothing left for buybacks for all the buyback junkies.
Years of low capex have reduced 2P and 3P reserves and left little margin for error. Now their balance sheet or dividend is going to have to bear the brunt and they'll need success with Ecopetrol to reverse the momentum.
The admitted screwup at Arauca has shaken confidence.