Canaccord increases target to $31Solid Q3 beat comes ahead of a significant jump in FCF next year with Attachie commissioned; 12% bump to dividend announced Wednesday after market, ARX reported Q3/24 results beating expectations. Production averaged 326,768 boe/d last quarter, modestly ahead of our 321,129 boe/d forecast and the Street at 319,633 boe/d while CFPS of $1.00 (basic) was a solid beat to our $0.88 forecast and consensus at $0.89. The cash flow beat to our forecasts comes predominantly as a result of modestly higher production overall alongside higher-than expected realized natural gas prices in conjunction with lower operating/transportation costs. Overall, we view it as an excellent print from the company ahead of a meaningful change heading into 2025 with Attachie Phase 1 now commissioned and currently producing ~20,000 boe/d (ramping towards its ~40,000 boe/d capacity in early 2025). Now benefiting from its ~$750M investment in the project, we forecast ARX generating $1.7B of FCF next year on our CGe price deck ($1.5B at strip), versus the $700M we forecast for 2024. Holding true to its messaging in increasing its dividend in step with the business, ARX increased its dividend by 12% to $0.76/sh (annualized) to yield 3.3%. We would also highlight that this increase reflects <$50M in annual commitments, leaving ample capacity to continue repurchasing shares alongside advancing Phase 2 of Attachie beyond 2025. We reiterate our BUY rating on ARX and have increased our target to $31.00 from $29.00 on our updated estimates, which maps to a 2025E EV/DACF multiple of 5.4x. Highlights from the release: Quarterly results. Q3/24 production of 326,768 boe/d was above our 321,129 boe/ d estimate and consensus at 319,633 boe/d. CFPS of $1.00 (basic) was well above expectations of $0.84 (CGe) and $0.85 (consensus). Operational update. During Q3/24, ARX drilled 48 wells and completed 44 wells, focused mainly at Attachie, Kakwa, and Greater Dawson. Q3/24 volumes trended at the high end of the 315,000-330,000 boe/d guidance due to higher-than-budgeted well productivity at Kakwa. Sunrise volumes were partially restored in mid-October following the curtailments due to low natural gas prices. ARX will continue to manage its Sunrise production in response to changes in natural gas prices. 2025 capital budget. ARX intends to spend $1.6-1.7B, at the low end of the previously announced $1.6-1.8B budget, to generate annual average production of 380,000-395,000 boe/d. ARX plans to allocate $360M to Attachie Phase I to generate average production of ~37,500 boe/day (60% liquids), $800M at Kakwa to sustain production between 170,000-175,000 boe/d and $500M to sustain production at its Ante Creek and NEBC assets. Outlook and estimate changes. The company reiterated its 2024 guidance of 350,000-360,000 boe/d on spending of $1.75-1.85B. Q4/24 guidance is 380,000-385,000 boe/d with strong volumes from Kakwa and Attachie offsetting the Sunrise curtailments (partially restored in October). Our updated estimates are summarized in Figure 2. Conference call. ARX will host a conference call Thursday morning at 10:00 AM ET (8:00 AM MT). Interested parties can access the call by clicking here. Valuation and recommendation. We are reiterating our BUY recommendation on ARX and increasing our target price to $31.00 from $29.00, which maps to a 2025E EV/DACF multiple of 5.4x and is 0.9x our C-NAV. ARX currently trades at 4.0x 2025E EV/DACF, compared to the peer group average of 3.8x