5% Production Increase based on share buybacks (YTD 2024)8 million shares were bought back in 2024 todate, which effectively means a 5% increase in CF, FCF, Production on a per share.
Every 3 million shares repurchased, increases the production per share by roughly 2%. (The cost is in the 40 million dollars ball park.)
In Q3 VET spent 40 million dollars in share buybacks.
In theory when you buy back 2% of the shares every quarter which is effectively what VET did in Q3, you should get a 2 percent rerating of business metrics, absense of changes in commodity prices meaning you should get 2% better share price, (27 cents roughly, value marker, market driven)
In Q3 they Also paid off 73 million in debt, which is effectively 47 cents a share. That is the increase in enterprise value as a product of paying down the debt. (47 cents is real debt reduciton per share)
Also you get a 12 cent dividend this quarter. (This is cash in your pocket)
So for a share holder holding VET you effectively got
( 27 cents attributed to share buyback, + 47 cents debt reduction + 12 cents dividend)
In q3 = 86 cents a share returned to share holder this quarter
Effectively with respect to a $13.25 share price, a 6.5% quarter over quarter return. (Anualized 26%)
In Q4 FCF was 154 million dollars so 40 million in share buybacks is roughly 26% of the FCF.
There is effectively a 2% quarterly compounding impact of share buybacks, and the impact of reduced debt costs, and the steading progress they make on Production.
It amazing in Q3 the work at Mica, the Croiata production that was increased from 122 boe/day to 1855 boe/day and is now over 2000 boe/day (understated), and the Germany success.
Really compelling opportunity with a ton of gas (and growing) at the right end of the LNG deliveries.
IMHO