Allkem Ltd T.ORL

Yup - Pretty Optimistic

[cristo]

Of course I realize that 10 million CF per day is optimistic and that one needs to take into account decline rates which can kick in after only a couple months of production. You can use a range of numbers. FD's estimate is approx $287,000 Cdn per well per year for every 1000MCF per day using $3.50 per MCF. Ok, multiply that by 15 GAS wells (that's the program being described) and you get $5,305,000 per year which is ORL's 14.5% NRI in the primary zone. So that's the downside and it's about 50 cents per share. It doesn't correlate with observations coming from the well site, but hey, what the heck, there's nothing wrong with being ultra-conservative, especially in these markets. I still think it's realistic to see 5 million CF per day after initial decline. Using FD's formula, this would translate into almost $2.50 per share in revenue. Something else that is not being discussed is the 26 feet of oil pay found in the Moreno which will certainly add more revenue too. I do agree that without more documented information from the tests, it is difficult to pin down exact numbers. My point is that there is much to be optimistic about and the current stock price is not an accurate reflection of the potential upside that exists here. So I think my money's pretty safe, at these prices. PS. Can anyone tell me where to find CA Bdr gas price? I know where to find Henry Hub, but not California. Thanks