RE: Interesting article on gold derivativesI will try to indicate the main points of this article:
(1) Among the major central banks, only the Swiss Natinal Bank and the BIS provide any figures on their amount of gold lending. From the BIS data, you can see that they since 1995 they are doing more lending and they have less gold that is held. We could assume the same for all other central banks which don't supply their data to the public.
(2 Using BIS statitics on gold derivatives he estimates that the short position is in the range of 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes which is similar to Mr. Veneroso estimates. OTC Gold Derivatives, which are privately made agreements which doesn't require the delivery of gold are on the rise.
(3) He indicates that many hedge producer like Barrick, Newmont and Harmony are gilding their hedgebook. They purchase call option on gold to offset their hedge position (ie: documentation on these purchased calls are found in the footnotes of their annual statements). By doing this, they also incur credit risk from the bullion bank which sold them these contracts. If these banks go under, they are still stuck with their hedge book.
(3) He also talks about the gold forward rate (GOFO) which is the difference between the interest rate (ie:LIBOR) and the gold lease rate. As you can see from the graph the gold forward rate is declining and when it turns negative, we have backwardation. Backwarding represents the biggest threat to Barrick Program (of spot deferred) because the new contract prices declines on each re-repricing date.
Based on the increase of OTC gold derivatives, reduced incentives for gold lending, falling LBMA volumes and declining open interest in COMEX gold options, he indicates that the bullian banks have been unable to wind down the pyramid of gold derivatives as the contangos (ie:GOFO) narrowed and that the central banks are locked into rolling oven (or even adding to) their gold lease at rates that no longer compensate. Without a higher leasing rate, the gold market can remain functional as long as the central banks continue to support it at non-economic rates or until they run out of gold.
IF YOU UNDERSTAND THIS, GET RID OF YOUR BARRICK SHARES AND REPLACE THEM WITH UNHEDGED GOLD PRODUCERS LIKE GOLDCORP AND GOLD FIELDS.