Proven Vs. Probable“Proven reserves are known reserves which, on the available evidence, are virtually certain to be technically and economically producible, i.e. Having a better than 90 % chance of being produced. Probable reserves are known reserves which are not yet proven but which are estimated to have a better than 50 % chance of being technically and economically producible.”
Reference:
1. Department of Trade and Industry. Development of UK Oil and Gas Resources (DTI) (the "Brown Book"). Various issues. The Stationery Office, London.
15,017,000 – 2,902,000 = 12,115,000 probable.
12,115,000 x 50% = 6,057,500 barrels technically and economically producible (at least).
2,902,000 x 90% = 2,611,800 barrels technically and economically producible (at least).
2,611,800 + 6,057,500 =8,669,300 barrels technically and economically producible.
x$30/105M=2.477/share.
And this is only from Brenda 1, remember that all the hype about the 150M barrels was after Brenda 2. It’s Brenda 2 where the treasure lies and where the reserves that will carry this stock to the moon is…so lets wait for that second report from Sproule.
Cheers to everybody and goodluck.