Advanced Explorations Inc. ADEXF

Slaughter

[hundredvanities1]

If AXI is set to publicly release the final feasibility study in the next couple of weeks then they must have a draft from Tetra Tech in their hands right now. That's how the process works. 

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If they had a wildly positive draft in their hands would they be issuing 15 million new shares and warrants? Of course not. They'd wait 3 weeks, release the positive study, enjoy a bump in the stock price, and then issue shares. 

*

The NPV is going to be marginal at best (under $500 million), but AXI management will try to make a lot of hay about improving the number with the proposed LNG partnerships.

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Once AXI is completely dead then I'll stop posting. There's still 50% to 75% downside from these levels. Save your money.

[Shlinker_]

Slaughter....not when ANON is buying. Thats a good sign in my opinion. Is that you buying hundredopinions?

[rpdeluca]

$500million NPV...Would love to know how you came up with that number. 

[hundredvanities1]

The Roche Bay PEA's NPV was $1 billion in 2009. Prices for labor/construction costs have skyrocketed since then. See cost overruns at every mine construction project built recently. Also Nunavut-specific failures at Meadowbank (massive cost overruns) must be taken into account.  * The NPV of the feasibility study will come in far below the NPV of the PEA. Tetra Tech is willing to come up

[Shlinker_]

"The NPV of the feasibility study will come in far below the NPV of the PEA. Tetra Tech is willing to come up with ugly results: Selwyn Resources had a positive PEA for their zinc project, but Tetra Tech was unable to produce a positive NPV when they ran the feasibility study. This is a normal trend with feasibility studies in the last few years" ** Actually Selwyn doesnt have a

[Shlinker_]

My correction: From Selwyn Web-site news release dated May 28th. Tetra Tech Wardrop (Tetra Tech) was engaged by SCML in January 2010 to complete a feasibility study for the Selwyn Project to NI 43-101 standards. The mining plan in the feasibility study focused on the development of the Selwyn Project as an 8,000 tonne per day underground mine operation, initially focused on the XY Central and Don

[rpdeluca]

PEA in 2009 was based on a nugget operation.  Tumble some actual numbers before you make general statements like you've done.  Tetra Tech's job is not to come up with ugly results or great results.  They are to deliver an NPV which is based on facts and industry norms/averages.  They don't wake up one day and decide I'm going to use $250 for iron ore concentrate

[hundredvanities1]

Industry norms/averages in recent years = skyrocketing costs for labor and equipment. The Nunavut norm is a massive cost blowout for the only producing mine in the region (Meadowbank was estimated to cost $400 million capex, ending up costing $1.3 billion). * The feasibility study will be based on power being produced by arctic diesel (expensive but proven), not the unproven, "remote"

[Oldguy]

I hope they are paying you enough to write the pile of C---  you post to this Board.

[hundredvanities1]

My only return is the pleasure of being right. All AXI has to do to shut me up is to deliver: how about a $1 billion to $4 billion NPV for Roche Bay and a signed JV deal this month? Dream on.

[Tepin]

Here is my calculation for the NPV, case 1 with OPEX 45 USD/to and case 2 with OPEX 40 USD/to: Basic informations: discount 8%, 115 USD selling price per to, 1 billion USD mine construction, 135 MT iron ore at around 67% FE available (factor 3,7), 5,5 MTPA operation, 24 years mine life (135/5,5=24,5 years)     Case 1: OPEX: 45 USD   Year 0  

[hundredvanities1]

Good job. Now what about Roche Bay plc's 6% royalty on concentrate production? The royalty requires a minimum $1 million payment per year, beginning in 2013, whether the mine is in production or not. * Also capex of $1 billion would be possible if the mine were sitting in the heart of the Labrador Trough with access to a skilled labor force, existing infrastructure and cheap hydropower lines

[hundredvanities1]

Also, you left out taxes. After-tax NPV is much more realistic.

[Tepin]

NPV calculations are usually before royalities and taxes. I would like to stop the discussion now and wait for the FS in 21 days (maximum). My guess: OPEX around 40 USD with artic diesel, CAPEX around 1 billion USD and NPV around 3 billion USD before taxes and royalities.  

[Shlinker_]

Thanks for the Calculations Tepin, 3 Billion would make this project feasible indeed. Im buying more, I have a sneaky feeling it isnt as bad as the SP says it is.

[hundredvanities1]

That's just not true. Every Canadian company that's released a feasibility on a mining project in recent years gives after-tax NPV and after tax Internal Rate of Return calculations. That's standard practice. Just google "after tax NPV feasibility study." You will see that's what every prospective miner does. Your numbers are meaningless without considering taxes and the

[Shlinker_]

The doom and gloom is outstanding here. With a shrinking shareprice, a recent, but relatively poor financing, poor market conditions, and a poster with his/her constant and relentless bashing posts... ** Folks remember something: The markets and people with alterior motives try and use smart words, a few facts, and alot of jargon to make you think you made a mistake...its all relating to

[rpdeluca]

Well said Shlinker.  We've all said it before that someone does not spend all this time on a board without an in alterior motive. Some just take it to the extreme.  The problem is that a certain individual has a gripe with managment and just can't let it go.   But remember the party has to end one day for everybody.

[rpdeluca]

I'll tell you what, if the CAPEX on this project comes in at 4 times as to what youa re seeing in the Trough (let's say $4 billion), then I will never post again on this board.  If it comes in under $4 billion, then you get off this board for good (and that includes all of your stupid identities that you've created over the last year).    Let's see how confident

[rpdeluca]

...and to show you that I'm not bias, you are correct in that a FS reports both pre-tax and after tax NPV and IRR. Nobody can get away from the tax man (or lady). 

[hundredvanities1]

If the post-tax NPV of the Roche Bay C-zone comes in over $4 billion at a normal discount rate (8%) then I'll send you $10K on paypal the next day. That's how confident I am. It's a sure thing. You've done enough idiot cheerleading of this stupid management team. No more posts for you, bro.

[rpdeluca]

Nice how you quickly change topic.  I mentioned the refernce to $4 billion as it pertains to CAPEX since you boldly predicted it would be 4X-10X what you would typically see in the Trough.   Who ever mentioned or predicted a post tax NPV of $4 billion.... WOW what a bold statement on your part to predict that the NPV will not be over $4 billion post tax.  Here's my

[rpdeluca]

my bold prediction is the NPV will be greater than zero...

[hundredvanities1]

Sorry, a misread. The capex will come in at $2 billion or so in the feasibility study. If they actually built the mine they'd blow out that estimate and come in around $4 billion with cost overruns (Nunavut factor). But of course it'll never come to that because everyone knows there's never going to be a mine at Roche Bay. * Capex matters but the NPV # is everything for AXI. If it

[Shlinker_]

There very well could be a mine someday bro (who else do we know said bro alot?). Infact, I think AXI gets their sh@t together and forms another partnership with someone (for Tuktu) and splits into two companies. Might not happen in the next month or two, but I think it happens regardless. They are currently in talks with other companies. This is fact. Also about to mention an MOU with LNG