Post by
SunsetGrill on Nov 06, 2018 10:18am
Scotia Beat
Scotia was at 17.50 previous now at $19 (below)
You need to understand how targets and analysis work (its a bit of a scam). Scotia was always higher targets when stock was dropping. Then they looks like fools as they have 20 target and stock at 15. Same thing on the way up for a stock
Alaris Royalty Corp
Q3/18 Initial Take
OUR TAKE:
Q3/18 earnings came in ahead of our forecast, driven by higher-thanexpected top line, and lower-than-expected expenses. As previously announced, Q3/18 was an active period in terms of capital deployment, with the company putting US$53M in new investments. While there was some deterioration on the tail ends, the overall investment portfolio remains in relatively good shape. The company has four investments with a coverage ratio greater than 2.0x, two in the 1.5x-2.0x range, four between 1.2x-1.5x, three in the 1.0x-1.2x, and two less than 1.0x. The coverage ratio in CCcomm (3.1% of run-rate revenue) has deteriorated from last quarter, and has its coverage ratio now sitting below 1x. That said, management stated that the company had no debt and sufficient cash on the balance sheet, so it does not expect any disruption in the monthly distribution. Kimco’s coverage ratio has also dropped below 1x, and while Alaris will continue to collect the interest payments, the monthly distributions have been suspended.
KEY POINTS Normalized EBITDA/sh of $0.55 was above our forecast of $0.53, but declined sequentially and y/y, by 0.6% and 2.7%, respectively. The decline was due to an overlap in distributions from SBI and Sequel, for a month in 2017, which added $0.04 per share in the prior period. NCOA per share came in at $0.46, well ahead of our forecast of $0.26. Key performance metrics and historical comparisons are highlighted in Exhibit 1.
The actual payout ratio for the quarter was 88.9%, while the run-rate payout ratio is estimated at roughly 94%. Previously announced corporate developments include: (1) Alaris monetized its investment in End of the Roll Carpet & Vinyl for $12.6 million, (2) committed to a threetranche financing, consisting of US$46M, US$20M, and US$25M (a total of US$91M), to Body Contour Centers, and (3) made a follow-on contribution of US$7M to Accscient. We will provide a full update with any potential revision of our estimates, target price, and recommendation following the November 6 conference call at 11:00 a.m. EST (dialin: 1-866-475-5449 or 1-213-660-0709; passcode: 9475618).