Alaris Royalty Corp ALARF

Analyst negativity - faulty projections

[mickeymouse]

Scoita currenlty has a target price of 19.00 - when you look at the numbers presented you see that they are expecting CFPS to plunge siginfiacantly next year - why is a mystery??

CFPS
2018 - 1.97
2019 - 1.64
2020 - 1.67

Also from their report their adjusted payout ratio is way out of whack:

2019 - 102.5%
2020 - 98.2%

Very negative projections and their cash deployment expectations are also very low - 2019 they are predicting a drop to well below 100 million.

This anyalyst clearly has a negative perception and either is not listening to conference calls when the positive capital deployment environment is mentioned or believes that there will be significant redemptions - in either case way out too lunch with the numbers.

With the positive resets in 6 weeks the payout ratio will drop again and new deployments will move the needle well into the 80's - amazing that a company that follows through on their promises and has dealt with problem files in an transparent and conservative manner is still treated this way by the so called experts - still trading at close to a 9% yield - but then again anything with a yield of over 5% is ridiculed and most of the analysts are on this bandwagon as they hate buy and hold dividend investors as less trading impacts their industry profits.

Would you rather have the company pay out 90% of their cash flow to you as a dividend or payout 50% with a lower dividend? - seems like a no brainer to me as I would rather have the cash in my pocket rather than leaving it with management where mistakes can be made.

[loosecannon3]

Sorry care to explain what the positive resets mean?  Thanks in advance!

[Capharnaum]

The way the contracts are made, when metrics in the companies they invest in improve, then the distributions from those companies increase (called distribution collar). This happens yearly (can be up/down) If my memory is good, from the last CC, they said the average reset was around 4%, which means that the current distributions they receive will increase by 4% next january.

[MrEvilx]

Okay, let me ask you this.. why does it even matter to you ? Are you not in Alaris for dividend income ? Analyst have their own agendas, you have your own, does Alaris fit your requirement ? If yes, then ignore what others say. The company is doing all right things to make you they give you your fair share of cash. Keep collecting and ignore the noise. GLTA

[Capharnaum]

So I ran numbers for fun. Scenario 1: In 2019, they have net $0 partner contributions during the year, Q3 partners distribution runrate for 2019 is maintained, resets are an average of 0%, GWM added. Net cash from operations would be $66.5M or $1.83 per share. Payout would be 90.2%. Scenario 2: In 2019, they have net $0 partner contributions during the year, Q3 partners distribution runrate for

[SunsetGrill]

All kinds of problems with your "analysis" there Goofy or i mean Mickey - Company Target institutional projections and projectionists have a variety of vested interests in many aspects outside of private investors. Its a mugs game worthy of a 60 minutes investigation. Just ask John Oconall who is on BNN as a Market call guest, Also, do some reading into how it actually works. Otherwise

[gvixid]

Your response was unnecessarily testy, and negative. First, not long ago the bank extended their credit line, even before they resolved some problem files. No reason they won't again considering the underlying business is now more solid Second, management said during cc that no redemptions were projected short term.

[SunsetGrill]

Booooo freakin Hooooo

[mickeymouse]

By the way Sunset - if you look up my profile you will see I have been on these boards since 1999 and have 236 people on ignore - you will make it 237 as you are a smart aleck and your posts have no value - don't bother replying.

[mickeymouse]

Here is another classic, useful post by Sunset Grill - the scotia analyst put out a report stating that the payout ratio for 2019 would be 102.5% and I pointed out that this was very negative and misleading - Grill boy jumped all over me and also went after Capharnaum and Gvidix. Payout ratio for 2019 is projected to be 89.1% - I guess the scotia analyst was a bit off now wasn't he Grill

[mickeymouse]

Thanks for the investing advice Sunset - you were quite condescending in your response and  garbage - does that sound like someone who follows investment advice blindly or needs to read up on how the game is played or go to a bank for advice - of course anlaysts promote their book and try to discredit some companies If you read the post by Capharnaum you will see his payout projections are

[SunsetGrill]

- if all the calc;s are correct AND THE SAME as scotia;s thn WHY do they differ - thats is mathmatically impossible and thats what i stated -show me where i show CONCERN about company exits - i stated that CFPS was  higher this yr due to company exits as you could not figure out how they drop next yr. - show me where i state the banks WONT give them more cash - i stated it may not be easy

[SunsetGrill]

Few more while im on a roll Run rate vs payout ratio - check it out  Show me where i show CONCERN about capital deployment. You stated that scotia has less then 100 million for next yrs deployment - WELL you even stated they only have 85 million left. Scotia cant assume they get more support. In many ways your response to mine is more pathetic than your original QUESTIONS Wont post here

[Capharnaum]

Scotia's analysis was poor for 2018 (if you look at Scotia's forecast vs reality) and is poor again for 2019. Hopefully for Scotia's clients, the analyst does a better job for the other stocks he's analyzing, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

[checkup]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[SunsetGrill]

[SunsetGrill]

[TickerTwit]

I would imagine it's a matter of cash flow. The banks should be happy enough to open the spigot if debt payments are well-covered.

[mickeymouse]

Well here was my original post and your very mature, intelligent reponse.  The scotia analyst got it completely wrong on the payout ratio and cash flow per share projection for 2019.  You chimed in with your expertise on how much capital they had left to deploy " less than $100 million" - wrong!! First response to another persons post and you start off with name calling and

[SunsetGrill]

No he didnt; bang on. And is correct again in his latest analysis - covenent at 2.3x Thanks for bringing up I called you Goofy- that was a good one. Ya know as a referece to your board name - GET IT. Sometimes i even crack myself up.  Will provide website later of ball surgury going on in Los Angeles.