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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Aleafia Health Inc ALEAF

Aleafia Health Inc. is a federally licensed Canadian cannabis company offering cannabis products in Canadian adult-use and medical markets and in select international markets. The Company is engaged in the production, sale, and distribution of cannabis. It operates a virtual medical cannabis clinic staffed by physicians and nurse practitioners which provide health and wellness services across... see more

GREY:ALEAF - Post Discussion

Aleafia Health Inc > By the numbers
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Post by Toweringmars on Jun 16, 2020 2:17pm

By the numbers

ACB - CPG = 0.882
APH - CPG = 0.933
AH - CPG = 0.30

Subject to massive change on the full 86 acres.Assuming we we're able to do 0.10 AICC on 26 acres, then by the economies of scale we should be looking in the ranges of 0.04 - 0.06 AICC. And given that we're likely using our own input material this time around, I would peg in in the lower range. Especially when you look to the quantity of the harvest, this should more than offset our newly licensed greenhouse production and bring our overall CPG into the 15 to 20 cent range. Thats going to blow the doors off every indoor/hybrid grower. If only 'she' could sell more of her outdoor... I mean extract it... I mean. heck, with that much of it it doesnt really matter what 'she' does with it as long as 'she' can make a modest margin. In all reality, we can sell the whole damn lot b2b for less than the competitions cost to grow it and still make money hand over fist.

100,000kg's @ 0.05 AICC is $5,000,000.00.
100,000kg's selling for 0.882 is 88,200,000.

88,200,000 - 5,000,000 means we're netting 83,200,000 selling AT COST of the other players. Sure theres a difference in quality. But you know for a fact none of them are selling at cost, so we'd be by far the better value proposition than buying premium, especially to extract it.

Thats an EPS of 0.277 on the outdoor alone if we sold it for bare minimum and undercut the entire market. Heck, imagine we extracted it and kept par with our 85% industry leading margins? We'd be able to pay off the debenture holders, do a share buyback, and offer a small dividend...

So as you can tell, if they can pull this off, (which should be a matter of weather considering we have one of THE best master growers in the industry), the company could give a flying fk about a few pennies here and there.

And my last point, is that even the guys leaving the company we're buying on the way out the door. Someone with insider knowledge like that doesnt generally add to their already million share positions at the age they're at for funzies. Both guys didnt get to the positions they we're by not knowing a thing or two...

Connect the dots.

Comment by Silverback63 on Jun 16, 2020 2:41pm
Does the 100,000 kgs take into account the potential for two outdoor harvests this year ? Not sure if that's still possible though.
Comment by OldSchooI on Jun 16, 2020 2:55pm
No. One crop only. My guess..1.5kgs per plant. Lucas and his crew are epic.
Comment by OldSchooI on Jun 16, 2020 3:04pm
Towering my friend, bank on an all in cpg cost of 5-6 cents (give or take) once the 100k plants are harvested. That's my calculated guess for the day. But hey, what do I know. I'm just a guy who's played this game for many many years who's now capable of living life to it's fullest. So leave me be, as I await patiently for my next AH cash cow to cash in. Besides, it's not ...more  
Comment by predawn on Jun 16, 2020 6:18pm
It has been almost two years since marijuana became legal in Canada and on Wednesday, Guelph residents will finally be able to purchase pot legally from a store within city limits. this is just so infuriating  no wonder dope sales in Ontario are still at a fraction of what was estimated 
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