Nevada Copper Corp NEVDQ

Warrants now leading the stonk >>>

[Notgnu]

I guess it is just a matter of increments but it now seems to me that the warrants are almost leading the stock. 

Someone needs to knock the warrants down by selling them to me or buy the stock up to about 26 cents... this is messing the my sense of balance.

Cheers,
Notgnu

[Newstock44]

If you do the math I would say you are correct. My math is now you receive 90 for 25 today with a change from warrants from shares and don't think this will be possible when the RS happens .235 x 25 = .065 x 90 that's more than 3 for 1 try it after the RS it won't add up so yes the warrants need to start trading. Cheers NS44

[patchh]

there are a few wts out there..  but the wts are small volume trades..  possible the wtrs are nooo longer in the market/large blocks and sitting in client portfolios.. even on a small 30K buy for the Jan - takes all day to fill..  fill 3000 and then stall on the midprice w inter brokers.. 300M is now only worth 30M for a stork..  the other item..  NIC is still an OTC or

[Newtrader1982]

i bought another 90k warrants at .055 a few days ago seemed like a good price

[Notgnu]

Seems great to me. My bet is you will see a 4X to 5X return on those in 6 months. N

[patchh]

the wts are not a great deal if U hav to buy TEN to get one in the Tin CUp ! yess it a dilution...

[Newtrader1982]

So how does that work if original warrant is say 10 for 10 share then then they rs 10 for 1 do your warrants just change proportionately and nothing changes if you exercise

[Notgnu]

It's just dimes to dollars... no change. 10 warrants to buy one consolidated share (If the warrants remain as-is, that is.) N

[patchh]

thats not a clear rosy pik here...  it may B an across the board push..  but going into exercise.. the warrants will go free market in odd lot buys.. that will not B across the board - anywhere from 20% to 125% attempting to purchase to call a jammed up stok price... the wts will trade willy-nilly in very short blocks..  U may order 100,000 @ a Buk..  but the order is going

[Notgnu]

Sure... maybe weird dislocations can occur in the market but the terms remain pro-rata N

[patchh]

these Wts are not going to B retired @ 185..  true there will B large block wt sales on the US side..  but they will B 'scarfed up as fast as they hit the booktraders from the canadian side... there are a lot of penny stork traders aout there who have a full basket of cash..  any trader who plays in this areana..  will B down @ the sport Shopp Buying up an extra box of

[Notgnu]

Open pit descision IMO will not occur until late sprig 2022. If copper holds $4.00 and the mine is running 5,000 tpd the stock will be well over $1.00 by then. Yes, a big financing might hit the price but alternatively a big financing could include a major as a partner and thus the implied future cash flow multiple will be higher than otherwise would be the case. This would negate any dilution

[westcoast1000]

patchh, When someone trades in their warrants plus the exercize price to botain shares, they get NEW shares issued by  the company. They are not getting existing circulating shares. Maybe that addresses your concern.

[westcoast1000]

Further to my last post, Except, as you know well, for warrant holders in the US. They have to sell their warrants, I presume because they cannot exercize them. But I expect there will be a fluid market for warrants and shares, in the sense that those of us up here in Canada can convert some of our warrants and sell some to raise cash. But you are correct in saying there will be usual selling

[westcoast1000]

Sould be:  "UNusual selling pressure"

[Arbourmark]

I am having a very hard time understanding why so many people do not understand how warrants work. I also have no idea why US investors would have different rules. Warren Buffet utilized warrants over his career to generate his wealth in many private placements. There appears to be so much misinformation regarding how warrants would be impacted by a potential share consolidation. I cannot

[Notgnu]

Hi Mark... I believe I have done a reasonable job of explaining them a few times over the past few months and yet, yes, there seems to be confusion. Maybe this is why I have been able to accummulate at what I think have been pretty good prices. Warrants are a time expiring option to by a share at a pre-set price... seems simple to me but maybe I am the one who is wrong... hope not :)) N

[Notgnu]

I think it may have been around the subject of the share consolidation that some were confused and worried that the warrants would no longer be pro-rata to the shares... this is of course not an issue... the ratio remains the same. N

[patchh]

splitting hare here...  the wts will not become pro-rata until they are exercised.. look around !  i do not see any 1.5M Wts on the trade book - not since march/april.. then the yanks will B dropping bak in w large bloks approaching expiration... the warrants have intentionally been diluted in favor of NCI - thats why they held bak on the R/S news - pushed into July... the Wts are an

[Notgnu]

I am basically not smart enough to know. I will probably excersise 3/4 of the warrants I hold and just keep the stock. I have enough commons to lever this (this assumes someting near to my target pricing.) No idea what others will do... too complicated and too changeable on a day to day for me to second guess or plan anything different in advance. If our share price runs way up I might even

[patchh]

find a local broker who will take a certified transfer of the WTS..  make a cash deal %5%..  says kno !  hit him w seven ! hold the storks - the real gains will B here going forward..  the wts are a sideshow....

[Newtrader1982]

How can you short a stock that at the same time you are holding shares in? Isn't that essentially just selling your current shares at whatever the sp is at when you "short" it?

[Notgnu]

It would be highly unlikely but if the share were to run up a lot and one were to sell all commons but hold 100% warrants then you could short the stock and limit the risk of getting caught in a squeeze because you own warrants to cover with. Note I said that more in response to a dialouge with patchh in which it seemed to me he was implying that the stock could run up before expirey of the

[patchh]

the warrants @ 10:1 are a dilution..  except it geared towards the NCI uptik of the stoks.. today..  & its 0810hrs.. that' market makes has failed again & again to sell a warrant... U only need a couple swing hitters buying that stok up after earning news..  and yes thatsa  throttle...! i don't know what going to happen..   this NCI is a square duk

[patchh]

if U own 50 shares.. hit the sell button for 100,,  now U are short 50 on a trade station..  rather easy to short2shore... u short when the volume starts to drop after an earnings report... buy it bak couple days later for 100 shares..  gives U bak the fifty and yeild...

[patchh]

i am looking for the speculations of implied volatility -&- a trader who has run into these when prices go over unity - when to sell when this wako-moooe gets loose..  ? i think everybody here understands the straight forward martha stewart wt exercises.. no the wts are not going to zero ----  but when does a push on the stok occur (days to Expir) and what is the percent of

[patchh]

makes a good case..  R/S short date w a Dilution of the Wts...  Mr Softie's Wts are sold in series as Calls w Puts.. true most are sold simply as long call's the dilution of the Wts - Cross Border Exchanges goiong into expiration w holders having odd lots in the 10:1 ratio.. and a good bet the mine will push that stok up to max the wts exercise price..  50M$  v/s

[patchh]

no !  the wts are diluted in this 10:1..the wts are a seperate instrument - security listing and are not directly tied to the stoks.. NCI has a listing for Wts and another for the common.. the wts are good..  except it takes 10 per tin cup share.. the american equivalent is convertibles or rag-tops; this is built into the original instrument/stok...  you only need to hold the

[Notgnu]

The warrants are pro-rata. The consolidation creates NO practical difference. 10 warrants for one consolidated stock vs one warrant for one not yet consolidated stock... or, if they decide, and I don't think so, is one consolidated warrant for one consolidated stock. No difference... just 10 dimes or one dollar. N

[Newtrader1982]

thanks notgnu so right now it's 10 for 1 before consolidation but after consolidation it will likely just be 1 for 1 share do I have this correct?

[Notgnu]

Right now you need to present one warrant plus 20 cents to buy a share. After you will need ten warrants and 2 dollars to buy one consolidated share currently worth $2.35 post consolidation relative price. N

[Notgnu]

Of course you would not do this currently because you would give up your time value in the warrant but if the stock goes to 50 cents or $5.00 post consolidation then you will (at 6 cents) get 30 cents for your 6 cent warrant thus a 500% return (+ - market dislocation) N

[Notgnu]

What can happen is that the stock temporaily is shorted and depressed just before expirey. The gamble here is that big waarant holders try to hammer the stock and hope to buy back lower and they have the warrants as insurance in case the reddit gets ahold of the short and runs the stonk to 10,000 bucks a share or whatever. N

[Notgnu]

It's a muggs game though because at some point immediately ater others discover that this is happening the stock pops back so it is more like a game of "cake walk' with everyone trying to grab a chair the moment the music stops. Medium and long term the stock is representative of the value of this business. The rest is just sharks trying to eat sharks. N

[Notgnu]

A further tought on the fully diluted 2.3 billion share float is that it includes a defacto $100 million convertable debenture in which the company gets that 100 million cash back when the shares are issued to the warrant holders (average of about 21 cents for both series.)

[Newtrader1982]

You seem fairly certain the warrants will be significantly in the money before expiry due to incoming expected profits. I certainly haven't studied the company like you have but it seems there isn't a lot of time left for such a huge move upwards. Hopefully you are correct I guess worst case you have to exercise and are stuck with the shares.

[Notgnu]

That is exactly it my friend. If copper stays up and the mine and management execute anywhere close to their guidance of 5,000 tpd and ad the increase to the value of the open pit property due to more recent geopolitical concerns and it is an easy 50 cents by expirey. Yes, I am bullish so take that for what you think it is. I now have over 2% of all the warrants at an acerage of about what they

[Newtrader1982]

so are you saying if the warrants are worthless you will exercise them or just eat the loss?

[Notgnu]

If the stock trades at 20 cents / 2 dollars consolidated then my first series warrants expire valueless. If the stock is 21 cents / $2.10 and above then I either sell them or excersize them depending on the market in the last week or so. So short answer.. yes, total loss in that case. Think of it this way: Buying warrants is like buying the increase in the share price. You have to pay for that

[Newtrader1982]

got it I guess I was thinking if it's trading at say .15 cents theoretically you could still exercise the warrants but it would cost you more than just buying the shares directly so no point but you could still buy the equivalent amount of shares if warrants are worthless to mitigate some of the loss am I right on this?

[Notgnu]

 I the shares are 20 cents / 2 dollars at expirey there is 0 mitigation of loss. The loss is 100% Just Risk vs Reward. I am a speculator... always have been. Always will be. N N

[Newtrader1982]

Ok got it you are correct the warrants are worthless hence 100 percent write off sorry for the stupid questions I am not that learned on warrants but I love the idea of them. One last 1 warrants expire worthless does that show as a loss from broker just like as if you sold at a loss for tax purposes?

[Notgnu]

Questions are great. Not stupid at all. My aim here, in putting forward my views, as I have done many times, is to look for weakness or holes in my understanding also, so keep questioning... that is how we all learn. As for tax... I cannot realy answer but I assume it is a capital loss to carry forward against future capial gains (7 years in Canada I think.) N

[Notgnu]

I lost about 80% of my portfolio due to leverage and margin in March 2020. After getting several margin calls I dropped to about $200K briefly. I borrowed some outside money to cover the last bit and traded oil and gas (should have stayed there as it turned out) until late 2020. Around November 2020 I started buying NCU at the bottom (around 7 or 8 cents) and then have averaged up while trading a

[savyinvestor333]

You may want to look at Nouveau Monde NOU for a comparison of what happens when a 10 for 1 consolidation happens. They also did a U.S listing and a financing after the consolidation. Share price before consolidation annouced $2.50. Share price now under $10.00 post consolidation. That is greater than a 60% haircut. Not saying the same thing will happen here but History may not repeat itself but it

[newinvestoor]

Not a good example. On june 18 the stock dropped due to this news . Your comment would be assuming that NCU will further dilute after RS. You should have mentioned this important factor in your statement. Nouveau Monde Announces Pricing of US$52,500,000 Public Offering of Common Shares in the United States and Canada GlobeNewswire JUN 18, 2021 12:24 AM EDT  

[savyinvestor333]

Ok that was just the last nail in the coffin. It dropped 10% on that news.It was already down nearly 50% before the financing. 

[newinvestoor]

If you look at the chart this stock(NOU) was propped up just like many others from end of 2020 to Q1. It went into RS then the SP started it's decent due to speculators going to the next best thing.SCR media would be a good comparison to NOU.   JMO NCU is already diluted and isn't overbought. Not the same  IMO

[savyinvestor333]

 Can you or anyone else here show me a current comparable company that did a reverse split and the share price increased dramatically?   I think it will be a pretty hard task.

[newinvestoor]

If the SP is already depressed based on past troubles and not propped by speculation then how could it go down once they start producing, This mine is on the cusp of becoming a profitable producer. Not too many stories out there with the same conditions. I appreciate your opinion but don't think this is a typical situation that can be compared based solely on RS .

[666999]

So much potential here, but first underground mine has to be profitable, so that story can move on, its waiting game for now , share price and volume reflects this Cheers

[Notgnu]

Well, yes. My reasons to own NCU:    Future open pits have gold and silver credits not pre sold in any stream deal The only fully permitted new USA copper open pit available for 10 years Future open pits are already permitted to allow 70,000 tpd production A possible 100,000 tpd mine was recently spoken about by the CEO Copper has run way beyond the $3.20 price

[Newtrader1982]

I have had one stock do a reverse split isodiol and it ended in disaster the sp almost immediately tanked and I still hold the shares in the red to the tune of 97 percent on my original investment. The shares don't even trade on the Canadian side I think it's been halted no idea I just stopped even following it.

[konrad]

For ncu everything depends on the why. If they do the reverse split to uplist as stated -> so goes up If they do the reverse split to dilute even further fundamentals won't hold the massive loss of trust -> so goes down All relatively speaking.

[SNgu8000]

Hi Savy , appreciate your viewpoint . You had asked "can you or anyone else here ...... " . Have you looked at TRQ ( they did R.S ) last year I guessed , honestly I m not detail guy much . ????? In case on NCU , I m more agredd with Newinvestor plus couple things too , most important is price of copper forward if it stay over $4 per lb , then NCU's valuation ( too low in my math

[patchh]

sit tite !  it will B a food fite..  the juniors always go for the last man standing..  as to nevada !  there hasn't been one like this since 2005... not a multi B play -but- it willsimply B a game..  err the Game/TIme !

[Notgnu]

As you can tell, I am looking forward to it and I assume you are too. Shoot out at the NV OK corral. It's going to be epic cimema before too long IMO. N

[patchh]

i spent a week getting 50K Jan's bak on board..  i would see peggs @ 55 place an order for 60 & the board would not sell 10K.. averaed bak in @ 65 - only 5K @ 60 i think they are running out of put supplies.. i got one snag @ 20K/65 - market; two hours later.... ahw - the storks are sitting @ 45% volume around some pre-news level

[patchh]

fantasy !  the shark chumm is the wts and raw bukets of blood next to the hook.. shorting going into full production  ????

[Notgnu]

I mean, I doubt I would do it, but it is not unheard of. If it happens it would just be a massive opportunity for those with cash in their jeans at the time. N

[patchh]

U can bet that soo-hoo-short will never happen before OP news is funded.. probably in feb - thereabouts when NCI likes to sing off tune...

[Newtrader1982]

Gotcha thanks

[patchh]

as a naked stand alone stork w jan Wt.. the Jan Wt should B around o.30 or 3.0 {101} stok trading around 5.5. $  or BuyN a 1:10 of 2.0$ U could exercise for a day gain around 0.5 $..  on 10,000 shares thats a 5000$ gain.. and it will get uber krazie.. the mine side willB buying happy meals for anyody who piks up the phone and hii sides..

[Notgnu]

What you say is true West: That is the difference between the 1.8 billion shares float and the approx. 2.3 billion fully dilluted float (though some rights and options are thrown in there too, but they are a minor percentage) N

[patchh]

A+B=C+D extrinsic - intrinsic - time > wt holder has 7653 wts..  going into expitation  ?? stok is @ 5.5.  holder above is short 347 Jan 22's..  the wts when the intrinsic is applied should B around o.30 or 3 buks on 10:1 the implied volatility as expiration for canadian holders nears for the time line...  will be the variable that defiles the  shares v/s

[patchh]

Short COurse on SHort Courses...  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ySd8YJBPxA Option Valuation and Input Variables https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aQUKNIPUIs from Patchh the Cat N the Cat Hat wearin a Cat Hat