Blasted by guidance
Continuing with our theme of bad break Friday's, natural and organic grocery chain Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NYSE: NGVC ) was throttled late last week after reporting its second-quarter results and delivering a sanguine growth forecast for the remainder of the year.
For the quarter, Natural Grocers reported a 22.4% increase in sales to $130.3 million and a comparable-store sales increase of 5.7%. Net income for the quarter jumped 24% to $4 million, or $0.18 per share. Through the first-half of the year the company has opened nine stores, which is on target with the expectation that it'll open 15 for the year.
The wheels fell off the wagon, however, when it adjusted its full-year comparable-store sales forecast to the downside with a fresh expectation of 5.5%-6.5% growth compared to prior projections of 8.5%-9.5%. Natural Grocers left its sales and EPS forecast unchanged.
Was a downside move expected with this adjustment? Absolutely. Should that downside move have equated to 37%? That I don't exactly agree with.
Natural Grocers has a number of positives working in its favor at the moment. Its stores are relatively small which allows the company to be nimble with its product assortment to ensure that it's carrying what consumers want. Its stores also cater to a growing number of consumers who crave organic and natural foods and supplements with personal health in such great focus.
We should also consider that Natural Grocers' report really wasn't that bad from a costs perspective. Its expenses as a percentage of sales actually dropped 20 basis points with administrative expenses dipping 40 basis points. In other words, it's rising costs are being used effectively in the build-out of its growing network of stores. Combining its reduced same-store sales forecast with new store opening it's quite plausible that revenue growth could exceed 10% on annual basis for three-to-five years by my estimations.
At roughly 28 times forward earnings, Natural Grocers isn't cheap by any conventional means, but I believe its double-digit growth rate could merit the company a more robust valuation than where it's trading now.