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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum NWM Mining Corporation NWMMF

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Post by HonestAbe on Nov 30, 2011 2:57pm

Q3 MD&A

Q3 production of 3,546 ounces from Lluvia.  Cash cost not stated with the reason likely due its non-commercial status (but most companies still report the cost no matter how ugly it is).  Q4 outlook of 4,000 ounces of production.  Positive operating cash flow not anticipated until start of 2012.  Jojoba deposit will positively impact production for full quarter in Q2-2012.  Cash at Sep 30 reduced to just 300K.
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IMHO it appears realistic production numbers with both deposits running in mid-2012 will be around 2500 ounces monthly or 30,000 ounces annually.  This would be 20% off from previous estimates of a 2012 run rate of 3000 ounces monthly.
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So the key here is if $5M from the credit facility is enough to handle the Q4 cash burn and the anticipated capex to develop Jojoba into producing status over these next two quarters and to also fund exploration/development of both deposits and the surrounding area.  It will be tight and there is likely no room for any further delays or missed production targets otherwise they will find themselves in a liquidity crunch if so.
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I think the market is responding fairly given the inherent risks and setbacks in the present situation.  GLTA.
Comment by production05 on Nov 30, 2011 5:33pm
Not that it is the solution to everything, but you didn`t mention the $2.37 million sales tax recovery.The cash injection since Sept. 30th (the last financial statements) is $7.4 million ($5.0M credit facility + almost $2.4M sales tax recovery).The sales tax recovery amount was booked ast Sales Tax Recovery Current Asset (a receivable) in the Sept. 30th Balance Sheet - NOT as Cash.Per ...more  
Comment by babedinkleman on Nov 30, 2011 7:49pm
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Comment by babedinkleman on Nov 30, 2011 9:41pm
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Comment by stockswiper on Nov 30, 2011 11:59pm
You just nailed it Babe!!! Right on the money!!! They have a cash burn rate that is unbelievable and the company is crippled in debts. Your assumption is biased because yes they will make 26 millions in cash but with the burn rate they have I really doubt that there will still be some left at the end of next year. Believe me they will need cash and sooner than later. He said it himself in the ...more  
Comment by babedinkleman on Dec 01, 2011 12:07pm
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Comment by HonestAbe on Dec 01, 2011 12:47pm
babe, if they can produce 31,000 ounces at $850ish an ounce then things will likely be okay.  But that is a big assumption to make.  Did the company ever give guidance for cash cost when they originally estimated closer to the 40K range?  I don't recall seeing anything.  So $850 per ounce is pie in the sky.  It could just as easily be $1250 or even $1450 per ounce and ...more  
Comment by babedinkleman on Dec 01, 2011 1:20pm
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Comment by twpt on Dec 01, 2011 2:29pm
You have to understand the mindset of Chris. He basically is a retail type investor or of a mindset of a yukon gold prospector. He sees what is possible and gets excited about those prospects. Much better than the bigger CEO's who have no concern for the shareholders, of which he is a large one and says what he thinks instead. He has given in to just getting fair value so he can cash out with ...more  
Comment by babedinkleman on Dec 01, 2011 10:00pm
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Comment by zzthnx on Dec 01, 2011 10:28pm
"Something just doesn't make sense. The market is saying that in a BIG way."Hey babe, you make many good points, however as far as where the stock price sits now, my impression from watching the trading every day, is that we've had some very large shareholders (institutions?) dumping millions upon millions of shares on the bid at such a relentless pace that would scare away many ...more  
Comment by scanner18 on Dec 02, 2011 7:28am
bid in pre-market is lower......seven............gold is in the green and nwm is getting hammered and everything is hunky dory
Comment by twpt on Dec 02, 2011 1:38pm
Babe I just think Chris is throwing in the towel on controling the company past production. I have been in same type of situations persoally with previous companies and decided to sell even though I seen a brighter future. Sometimes you have to take the risk out and let someone else with deeper pockets build it better. Maybe i'm a sucker but I just can't help liking a CEO that does not ...more  
Comment by newbie1231 on Dec 02, 2011 5:36pm
I was an investor a while back and I was e-mailing Chris on a regular basis and he kept telling me things that never came to pass, so his throwing in the towel just tells me that I was getting a giant snow job. If that is the kind of CEO you like I feel bad for you. By the way I'm not a basher. as a matter of fact, I liked what he was telling me so much (because I thought he was honest) I got ...more  
Comment by slick05 on Dec 02, 2011 10:07pm
I totally understand your displeasure on Chris. I agree that there was, and is still is to a certain degree, miscommunication issues to the shareholders. I do remember back when they were anticipating 25,000 ounces in 2011. That could have been probable if they haven't wasted time, money, and effort on leaching from the old pads which I bet is a major pissoff for everyone. Seems like they lost ...more  
Comment by zzthnx on Dec 02, 2011 10:23pm
Thanks, Slick. You summed it up nicely. No matter how you slice it, NWM at a market cap of $30 mil. is extremely undervalued at this point. Cheers, zz
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