Last month two TGZ executives received 1.2 million stock options combined at $3.00. They each recieved 600,000 options. Considering this, one must assume that they believe the company to be worth more than $3.00 per share. Either it is a negotiating ploy showing a bidder that they have to come high in order to negotiate or they want to keep these guys around for a while. Options usually vest 25% of the initial total each year after they are issued here in the US. I do not know about Canada. Why would they grant the options at $3.00 when the stock was trading around $2.00 when they granted them?
On another note, I believe that a $1.5 billion bid give or take $200 million would get both TGZ and OLE.
TGZ has 262 million fully diluted shares. A $900 million bid would get them $3.44 per share. A $1 billion bid gets them $3.82 per share.
As far as the public portion of OLE it is difficult to determine the value because of Badr's deminishing 13% stake.
I am going to give the entire OJVG group a conservative $450 to $650 million value and assume a 45% ownership stake for the following example.
Taking the midpoint of $550 million and using OLE's 150.6 million fully diluted shares gives us $1.64 per share.
$450 million yields $1.34 per share
$650 million yields $1.94 per share
As you can see, even taking the governments stake into consideration still makes this stock very undervalued here at around $.78. JMHO.
Comments?