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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Almonty Industries Inc T.AII

Alternate Symbol(s):  ALMTF

Almonty Industries Inc. is a Canada-based company, which is engaged in the mining, processing and shipping of tungsten concentrate, as well as the exploration and evaluation of its projects. The Company operates through four segments: Los Santos Mine, Panasquiera Mine, Valtreixal Project, and Woulfe. The Los Santos Mine is located in Spain whose operations relate to the exploration and mining... see more

TSX:AII - Post Discussion

Almonty Industries Inc > $750 Million Offtake Agreement Details
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Post by blueskies on Sep 14, 2022 12:16pm

$750 Million Offtake Agreement Details

Huge thanks QuarterDollar for pointing me in the correct direction to find the presentation, also, nicely done on your notes and memory, bang on from the presentation 210,000 MTU's per year for the offtake agreement.

The 210,000 MTU's was more than 80 per cent of what Almonty had initially planned to produce for the first few years (around 250,000 MTU's) but now is about 45% of production at the ramped up level of 450,000 - 500,000 MTU's per year which has now become Almonty's initial planned production.

In the presentation they talk about the offtake a number of times, including at about 4 minutes, 9 minutes and again with a slide at about 25 minutes.

For reference the presentation is:
UK Presentation from 2020

I see this as very important for a couple of reasons, all of which have been discussed before but I'll mention again.

The offtake guarantees Almonty $16 million a year of free cash flow as the price is $235 / MTU of APT or about $183 / MTU of the product Almonty sells. Almonty's cost of production is roughly $106 / MTU, but this will likely be lower because of the grade increases Lewis has mentioned.

$16 million a year for about 45% of the production is a nice margin of safety.

Now, I expect there will be no problem selling the other 290,000 MTU's each year, most likely to South Korea I think and most likely much of it will be under an offtake agreement of some kind to be announced in the coming months.

So assume similar terms to the offtake agreement with a price floor, on most of the 500,000 MTU's, that is a nice floor profit of about $38 million, again, at prices much lower than current prices for Tungsten.

If you increase the price to current levels, about $330 / MTU APT or $257 / MTU for the product Almonty sells (which the offtake allows for), well the free cash flow of the GTP offtake agreement at 210,000 MTU's becomes $32 million, and if you assume Almonty can sell all 500,000 MTU's which again I assume they can, then Almonty has about $75 million in free cash flow from Sandong within the first couple years of production.

Reminder, Almonty currently trades at a market cap of about $120 million USD ($158 million CDN)

Reminder #2, Almonty is already producing tungsten with small profits at current prices, and they are doing this while processing similar levels of ore to that which will be needed to be processed at Sandong. I mention this because it proves Almonty already knows how to process the amount of ore needed to operate Sandong at the projected levels. The presentation provided a nice reminder of Almonty's proven capability to process ore for Tungsten.

Reminder #3, All of the above ignores the Molybdenum resource which Lewis has suggested will be of similar value to the Tungsten resource.

QuarterDollar, you being able to point me towards this presentation made my day. Thanks again.

Go Tungsten, Go Almonty.
Comment by 5ilverlining808 on Sep 14, 2022 1:02pm
That almost brought a tear to my eye.  Instead of kicking each other in the teeth as other boards seem to do, we reach out to dig, delve and research to clarify issues. That is the one BIG thing that sets us apart from the others that lacks these qualities.. A massive diverse group of posters indeed.
Comment by whoisyourpapa on Sep 14, 2022 1:19pm
But wait there's more. . . The USD106/MTU cash cost figure is before subsidies. Management expects to receive a subsidy equivalent to USD5- 10/MTU to fund tailings disposal. This subsidy will take final cash cost below USD100/MTU. The 2016 technical report in addition assumed a tax rate of 24.25% following an initial two year tax holiday. Management tells us that Sandong’s ...more  
Comment by QuarterDollar on Sep 14, 2022 4:17pm
Good job in pointing this out Whois I hope LB can shed more light on this over the next few years.
Comment by QuarterDollar on Sep 14, 2022 4:16pm
I second that 5ilver !!!
Comment by QuarterDollar on Sep 14, 2022 4:10pm
@Bluesky........dam your calculations are getting very close to mine!
Comment by QuarterDollar on Sep 14, 2022 4:34pm
@Blueskies, LB stated that they estimates were extremely conservative in their production calculations.  Others have said the same thing  (although I don't recall if it was the company measuring the core samples). Regardless, LB said they will be producing 25%-45% more.   So Blueskies, using 25% increase output will push up your 500K MTUs to 625K on the low end.
Comment by QuarterDollar on Sep 14, 2022 4:47pm
@Blueskies..... one last thing..... GTP purchasing 210K MTUs each year....Period!......Forget the statement of GTP's take is 45% in your calculations.  This is LB's calculation based upon what they though Sangdong's output would be at the time.  And now the 45% number has stuck with GTP's portion which has no reflection on the actual amount they are purchasing.  ...more  
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