Aecon Group Inc T.ARE

FY25 EBITDA Projections

[Kupotea]

I've seen some informed posters in this board suggesting a rough range of $400M EBITDA for FY25.

the new CFO commented that revenue should be flat for this year then increase nicely in FY25 from the 5 large contracts moving from design to build. With TTM Adjusted EBITDA being $365M ex: Legacy/divested businesses you could keep margins flat and pretty easily hit the $400M EBITDA mark.

What confuses me is you have a few Analysts calling the company already fully valued. I believe one recently suggested the company was trading at a 6.1x EV/EBITDA multiple compared to their FY25 projections. The only way that makes sense is if gross margins plummet. Ignoring cash on hand, FCF for FY24 and the likelyhood of future settlements to Aecon that's about $172M in projected EBITDA for FY25. What is that analyst smoking to come up with those projections or am I missing something very important?

[Gabriel]

You are not missing anything. The analyst you are referring to had it all wrong for SNC and is now hyping it at triple the price.

[Henrye]

I am thoroughly enjoying and am appreciative of the many very intelligent, helpful posts that are being shared by our fellow valuable shareholders. Love all the variations of the many point of views as they are all so well thought out and informative.  Being a signifiant AECON  shareholder ,  today and moving forward is starting to be  a lot of fun!  It's proving to