ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

Full on Pricing

[MyHoneyPot]

Q4 is going to be a quarter of exceptional pricing, and ARX will appreciate. It seems that there we are entering a period of re-rating, where these stock prices should increase with the commodity prices and earning. 

AECO is over $4.50 again, https://www.gasalberta.com/gas-market/market-prices .

The world is starting to realize an Energy Transition will not be free, it will not be immediate, and it will not be without its challenges. Elon Musk says the USA will need to double their power grid to accomodate electrification. 

The EU/Germany is now recognizing Carbon Capture and Natural Gas as viable transitionial Green Solutions. Blue hydrogen now becomes viable by default, and the fact that it can be mixed with natural gas simply makes a stronger business case. 

I think the exciting news for ARX that will add two or three dollars is when they disclose their plans for the the Cut Bank gas plant conversion and how it will add meaningful, high value barrels to ARC's production. 

There will be a significant increase to cash flow in Q1 when you consider that 60% of ARX CF comes from Condensate, and 20% of the condensate hedges will be gone, with a higher ceiling price this will be significant. 

We are in a new and more stable price enviroment for commodies, and gas prices in Europe with people paying as much as 250 dollars a boe of natural gas is simply amazing. 

Q1 i predict will be the turn aroun quater for ARC and it will likely not be until Q2 that we see the full impacts of pricing and hedges relief. 

IMHO 



 

[Shaleguy]

Very thoughtful and positive comments honey. I am still researching the scope and capabilities of the Cutbank work, but it should be significant. BTW Holt was not a fit as he was too rammy.