Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

If ever there is going to be a buyout its now before hedging

[bosstrade]

If someone wants them it will happen in the next week before hedging takes place.

[Maxmoe]

I seriously doubt someone bidding for ath cares about the hedging program. No, hell no. They are looking at cash flows for the next 5,10 plus years. Not quarters, not months, not days.

[bosstrade]

Agree their looking long term, but they all realize if they take over now before hedging they can pay for it with diffs on hedging quickly

[Maxmoe]

Huh? What diffs? Spot vs 1 yr curve? If Ath hasn't completely hedged yet, great, the hedges will be higher and they will be at the same price as any long term buyer will get. Are you suggesting an industry buyer , that already uses hedges for its own production won't hedge the Ath production? Or that private equity money will risk it all by not hedging production? Because they "know

[bosstrade]

Hopefully today was Seattle of the tree before the offer. There are a few players that are unhedged at this point. Easy pickings for them, especially Tourmaline.  ConocoPhillips execs cite unhedged position for strong Q2 earnings for example.  Higher Brent oil prices to date in 2021 and Parex' unhedged oil price ... Mar. 10, 2021 — (TSX: TOU) ("

[Maxmoe]

I couldn't be bothered to look them all for you but I KNOW tourmaline and they have hedges out to 2024. So I don't know if you are getting bad info or trying to mislead. But they all use hedges. ESPECIALLY tourmaline. https://www.tourmalineoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Website-PDF_-As-of-July-14th-2021-BS-included.pdf

[bosstrade]

Tourmaline is Relatively unhedged as I cut and pasted earlier. I'm sure you took the time to check out the others.    Natural gas fundamentals for 2021 and 2022 continue to improve.  Approximately 55% of Tourmaline's natural gas volumes are exposed to spot prices in markets on the Western half of the continent (PG&E, Malin, Sumas, Stn 2, AECO) where fundamentals

[Maxmoe]

Why would I check your homework junior? You were SO WRONG about a company I do follow, why would I check your incredibly misleading , or not, allegations about a huge American producer and a small South American producer, like all South American producers, couldn't find a counterparty to write a hedge contract for oil produced in Columbia if they wanted to hedge. I'm still unsure if you

[bosstrade]

Junior?? Why don't you let me know exactly what percentage tourmaline hedges liquids? You must have that right off the cuff being an expert. And why so emotional, you work for ATH?

[Maxmoe]

Nice job back pedaling . Reminder. We are talking about your purposely misleading and/or completely misinformed statement that tourmaline had hedged 5%, as a counter to my statement that all the whining about ATH hedging is misguided because all producers use hedging strategies, then you backpedaled to what are you at now? 30,40,50% I don't care. Sorry but you were pulling numbers out of your

[bosstrade]

No back pedalling here junior. If you misinterpreted, then what can I say. As far as other posts, yup off the cuff. Large shorts positions removed was a shoker. 18 months of hedging, a shoker.  Hundreds of post, like you, not a big deal. If you don't like them, don't read them. I own and follow  this stock. Always thought it should be alot higher. As far as your junior comment

[Maxmoe]

Yeah, sure thing. No way I "misinterpreted ", but you "mislead". Or tried to. I still don't understand why. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume it wasn't intentionally misleading, you just don't know what you are talking about. Aka "off the cuff". Aka "pull numbers out your azz". Go back and read those posts about shorts where

[Maxmoe]

Okay, I'm done. YAWN. Unless you want to keep take misplaced shots. Alec Baldwin ?

[bosstrade]

Your words were "like all South American producers, couldn't find a counterparty to write a hedge contract for oil produced in Columbia if they wanted to hedge? I'm done

[fellowship]

This deserves to be framed as we been through this for at least 2 1/2 years. Well done Max, the math was not adding up, obfuscation at finest. Not the only one at this conclusion my Montreal friend reading this you were spot on. 

[Renofund]

"Bosstrade" has been called out multiple times for RIDICULOUS posts.  I have found a few and called him out on some bizarre ones.  I am still trying to figure out their angle myself ... they dont get it?  Perhaps, like why post info that can be easily refuted with a simple search ... OR ... for some reason they think they can influence the shareprice on a bullboard.  

[fellowship]

I almost lost my marbles over that amount trying to find explanation...finally the dust settled and we  know the outcome. Maybe bosstrade was not really looking from that angle ..who knows..it is mostly deceiving especially when you dont have the right info. Or maybe just doing scalping himself.  The company is doing great so it is okay to leave it at that. Painful but learning

[bosstrade]

Sorry, just to not mislead. Please let us know how many barrels of oil Tourmaline produces and what percentage is hedged. Not natural gas. Hint, from page 6 of Sept 21st report. Oil accounts for 8%. Thank you.

[bosstrade]

Hey Max do yur homework junior? You were SO WRONG about a company I do follow, Grant Tierra you should check your incredibly misleading , or not, allegations about Columbian companies not getting hedges. Sorry, couldn't help myself using your own words. Anyways, lots of hedges in other companies in other countries as well like Columbia. Oil Price Hedges In Place Designed To

[mlcb12345678910]

Nothing wrong with hedges. For ATH the decision on how much to hedge should have been based on the level to support the capex program and interest expense associated with their debt. Anything beyond this level would be a mistake and a total misread of the oil price environment going into the 2nd half of the year. However, given the CEO/DFO's track record their decision was probably based on

[bosstrade]

Agree. And point I was trying to make was that a large oil with minimal hedges could scoop up cheap if these 18 months worth of hedges aren't in place. Not to mislead anyone Max, or rain on anyones parade, I don't think the hedges were good and I think maybe some other majors will look at this as an opportunity.

[Maxmoe]

And I'll say again, the hedges will have zero impact on any interest from a large producer. If the hedges are half as negative on the valuation of ATH as you presume, it will increase interest from large buyers due to the inexplicable discount.  

[Nothingmatters]

This guy is talking sense listen to this mofo..