Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Back of envolope conservative, using 50 vs current 60

[drunk@noon]

dollar netback. It was over 35 in Q3 and WCS is up over 25 dollars at current valuations, but not about to use current prices. So instead I use 50 dollars, AND I take off 100 million for the  hedges. (HAVE no idea why there are people on this board who can't look up current hedging situation of a company they are looking to  investing in)
I knock off 130 mill for cap ex and you get 370 million free cashflow. 
Like I said current netback higher, but on must also service the debt etc, and thus I will use 50 for now. 
I came up with this 370 free cashflow figure back when nutal was selling, in the 1.10 range. At that time 370 free cashflow was 55% plus (thanks for selling to me nuttall) Now free cashflow represents a mere 40% return.
Also of note, debt can be bought back by end of year, so all the debt service/ interest expenses won't be around going forward, and of course the 100 million plus costs of the hedges will be gone. 
Now, needless to say, You can't rely on $100 cdn WCS. It can drop 20 dollars in a week, who knows--but if you are investing in the o and g sector--this was and is the cheapst out there going forward as things will only get better when debt is gone, and hedging costs go away. Which would bump the free cashflow up to 50% going forward, even with the current shareprice run up.

[GABY51]

target  estime  selon  toi    au  30 juin  3$  esce  trop haut

[Maxmoe]

Back of envelope works fine for me. If it's plus/minus 10% won't matter. The sheer scale and direction is the key. Huge cash flow AND it's raising as hedges roll higher. Note, hedges roll higher, they don't roll off. The "what about the hedges" crew are same crew as the "what about debt" and "what about a dividend " crew. They don't own Ath. They