Canada's inflation rate should be higher than the US for the reason discussed below.
The Cpi basket assigns a weight for each category and then extrapolates an inflation rate based on these y/y measures. Shelter is the largest component of the CPI in Canada and the US and represents about one third of the value. This makes sense as the majority of one's own disposable personal income (Dpi) goes towards servicing rent/mortgage payments, etc. Every now and then, the composition of the basket changes to reflect changes in consumer consumption patterns. For instance, in June of 2022, the CPI basket added used cars because of changes in used car purchases. Fair enough. However, I would argue that the weighing of such a basket should also change when the weight as a percentage of Dpi changes. In Canada, a much larger percentage of disposable personal income goes towards household debt payments than it does in the US. For instance, some people have to assign 50% of their DPI to mortgage payments and therefore the inflation rate for that individual is much higher when shelter inflation is above trend. Conventionally, this level has remained fixed at about one third of CPI, when in fact it should be higher due to elevated household mortgage debt. If the weighing changes, then the true Cpi should be trending higher. As of January 2024, shelter inflation came in at 6.1% y/y.
Ex 1: If shelter is 50% of dpi, then 50% of 6.1% gives you a minimum Cpi for this individual at 3.05% even if the other 50% has an inflation rate of 0%.
Cpi = 50%* 6.1% + 50%*0% =~ 3.05%
Ex 2: Suppose the other 50% of the baskets weight returns to 2% and shelter remains stuck at 6%, then Cpi would be :
50%*6.1% + 50%*2% =~ 4.05%
Canada should focus on Cpi ex shelter and target 2%. Then, if they're confident it has normalized, then they can reduce the Policy rate accordingly. Fwiw, I've calculated a CPI rate ex shelter and it's pretty much already on target if we use their calculation and weights. Btw, keep in mind that gasoline prices have been trending lower and can easily add another percentage point with a 20% rise in gasoline prices. Moreover, as discussed above, I believe shelter inflation should represent a higher weight in the CPI basket to reflect changes in Monetary policy.
Anyway, something to think about.
Have a good weekend.