BlackBerry Ltd T.BB

Krummy Yasch

[theRussian]

At what growth guidance do we get 10x? I mean iot is already 30%. It's only CS that analyst are concerned with but with how things are growing we're going to see about 15% from last year and guidance i assume is about 30-50% for coming year. 

So if next qtr growth (june) what does Chen need to guide to show so we get minimum deserve 10x and not just 1-2x(excluding cash on hand)?

[Krumy77]

im more right brained about things. I crawl through numbers and patent documents and 10q's and such. Im here because i "feel" the sector growth forecasts are a fraction of the reality and blackberry's near monoplization of ev rtos. So i dunno,.....i my view, i. Here because whatever you and yasch come up with,..I add 15% lol.

[Krumy77]

so for me, CAGR is severely mis-forecast and at these levels,....this is a humdinger for me. Gonna make a boatload .

[theRussian]

so the last reporting by big money is for end of Dec 2021....and just reported since they have to 45 days after th elast ER (mid Feb).  so next reporting by big money is May 15th or 45 days after next ER.  This feels very far out. I think chen needs to guide well next ER. Or else they will beat this down because our annual looks really bad due to licensing. 

[Yasch22]

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[theRussian]

Yasch, 1. Is that guidance or from last year ? If Chen comes in at 500m for last year he is flat. If 525 then growth was 5%. Guidance needs to be much higher for future like 40-50% like crwd. Why only 10%? 2. if Chen shows 50mil for qnx then compared to last year growth is 35%!!!!! That's nice . Future he needs to guide higher.  3. yes ip think I'm worried. The buyer hasn'

[theRussian]

Sorry for #1 it's 515 higher end of cyber guidance. He said guidance in 1q was 490-515. Our last year cyber was 491. Would be nice if he does 515. 

[Joey67]

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[Krumy77]

those are good points joey, and i have reflected on it greatly,..........the conclusuon i come to over and over again is that detection and response was good enough before. I think the notion is that up until recently, chen had a machine gun at a series of knife fights.

[Krumy77]

that being said,...i wouldnt mind a bit if cylance was sold and this was a pure ev play. Maybe put the proceeds into infotainment investments. Just my opinion. Dont love the role cylance has carved out,.....hope that changes

[Krumy77]

best hope for cyber and cylance, imo, is partnership with CRWD for layered XDR/DR and a premium SaaS package partnership. I think CRWD has won because all detection and response needs to do is detect and respond,.....Ai claims to be preventative,....but when the dudes fro oz attached world of warcraft code or fortnite code to malicious code and cylance opened the door to the network,........this

[theRussian]

Cylance or bb cyber is the biggest component for blackberry. The iot is small and years down the road.  cyber we can get to 50bil market cap like crowdstrike. Iot is very slow and ivy will barely bring in 1 bil a year in 2030. Cyber will do like 3-5 bil by 2025. 

[Krumy77]

i hope you are right about cyber, but if it does, i think it will be through layering partnerships with names like crowd,....instead of adversarily against names like crwd that ppl already trust.

[Krumy77]

and honestly, this thread is exactly why I see CAGR analysis as underestimating the next 12 months . The landscape is changing so fast.

[BuddyBarry]

IOT is not small. It's close to 1/2 Cyber BUT growing up to 40%. 

[Krumy77]

exactly buddyberry,. ...and personally i think its conservative at 40%,....or rather,....there is still big possible upside across the sector and the beast feeds on the beast and snowballs, .......for me,....its a once in a lifetime situation where everyone acknowledges that everything is about to change,.. that the world is flush with money, and that BB is very well positioned on the IoT side of

[theRussian]

Agree iot is growing compare to cyber but it's growth is like steps and not linear.  cyber I see more growth because look at crwd. They are growing quick and fast. Btw blackberry also now has detect and response capability like crwd. This was added a year ago and this is why we are winning against crwd and S1